人口年龄结构、经济发展与居民储蓄率间的动态关系研究--基于面板向量自回归模型

A Study on the Dynamic Relation between Population Age Structure,Economic Development and Resident Savings Rate:Method Based on Panel Vector Autoregression

文章探讨了人口年龄结构、经济发展水平与居民储蓄率三者之间的动态关系。不同以往研究,我们放松了人口年龄结构外生于经济发展水平的假定,利用1990~2016年的省际面板数据,构建三类人口抚养比与实际人均GDP增长率、居民储蓄率的三个向量自回归方程,通过脉冲反应函数、方差分解、格兰杰因果检验实证了年龄结构、实际人均GDP增长率和居民储蓄率三者关系。结果表明:人口年龄结构与经济发展是双向因果关系;不同的人口年龄结构对居民储蓄率的影响具有差异性;在不同人口年龄结构下,储蓄率对经济发展的影响是不同的。本文对实证发现进行了全面系统的人口学和经济学解释,并思考了在经济发展背景下,老龄化和少子化的现实困境及出路。

This paper discusses the dynamic relationship among the age structure of population,the level of economic development and the saving rate of residents. Different from the previous studies,we relaxed the hypothesis that the age structure of population was born out of the level of economic development. Using the provincial panel data from1990 to 2016,we constructed three kinds of vector autoregressive equations of dependency ratio of population,real GDP growth rate per capita and resident saving rate. Through impulse response function,variance decomposition and Granger causality test,we have demonstrated the relationship among age structure,real per capita GDP growth rate and household savings rate. The results show that:the age structure of population and economic development are twoway causality;different age structure of population has different impact on the saving rate of residents;under different age structure of population,the saving rate has different impact on economic development. This paper makes a comprehensive and systematic demographic and economic explanation of the empirical findings,and considers the practical difficulties and solutions of the aging and the minority in the context of economic development.