低利率环境下债券市场机会与风险辨析

Opportunities and Risks of the Bond Market in a Low Interest Rate Environment

在利率仍将逐步下行的预期下,文章分析了短期内利率债和信用债市场的整体情况、主要影响因素,指出应珍惜当前行情,用好配置策略。文章同时分析了债市的主要风险因素,指出上半年无需过度担心基准利率反弹,短期超预期成分主要关注货币政策和海外不确定性,下半年若经济持续企稳带来利率调整,对债市产生影响也应存在一定缓冲效应。

With the expectation that interest rates will continue to decline gradually, this paper analyzes the overall market situationof treasury and policy financial bonds and credit bonds in the short term and the main in fluencing factors behind. Itpoints out that allocation strategy should be adjusted in time to better leverage valuable opportunities in the currentmarket environment. Major risk factors of the bond market are also analyzed, with the conclusion that there is no needto feel considerable concern for the rebound of benchmark interest rates in the first half of the year, while monetarypolicies and uncertainty in the overseas market are the two factors most likely to exceed expectation in the short term,and if the economy continues to stabilize in the second half of the year, which leads to rate adjustment, its impact onthe bond market is to be cushioned.