流动性背后的信用本质——从美元流动性紧张说起

The Credit Nature Inherently Embodied in Liquidity---From US Dollar Shortage

虽然美联储迅速行动令美元流动性紧张暂时得到缓解,但中央银行的局限性令其尚未能够有效阻止美国企业利润表恶化的反馈循环。当前美国经济的下行相对确定,分歧仅在于程度。美国长债收益率有可能重新恢复下跌,在汇率上表现为 USD.JPY 下跌。虽然流动性问题暂时淡出人们视线,但美国企业杠杆率背后的信用隐忧,或许才是未来应该密切跟踪的关键。

The policy tools that the Fed swiftly posted have eased US dollar shortage at this moment. However, the inherentlimitation of central banks means that the Fed has not yet found an e ffective way to cut the self-reinforced loop whichhas been eroding corporates’ income statements. Quite possibly this shows a fact that the US economy is falling andthe only point which the market doubts is the degree. Under this circumstance, the long-term interest rates of UStreasury have large possibility of restoring falling. For FX, the short position of USD.JPY would bene fit most. Thoughthe dollar shortage may be temporarily eased, the credit issue behind the on-growing leverage of the US non financialcorporate sector should be closely watched.