中美贸易顺差对中国就业的影响--基于省际面板数据的实证分析

The Impact of Sino-US Trade Surplus on China’s Employment--An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

本文基于中美贸易摩擦背景,研究中美贸易顺差对中国就业的影响,引入Cobby-Douglas生产函数理论作为变量选取依据,选取2001~2018年中国31个省(市)的面板数据进行实证分析,在此基础上将31个省份分为东北、东部、中部和西部区域检验其异质性,以及基于劳动力技能不同层次检验其异质性。结果显示,对美贸易顺差对各省的就业具有正向效应,对中部地区效果最为显著,西部地区次之,东部地区和东北地区的效果并不明显;对美贸易顺差对低技能人员起到促进就业作用,对高技能人员却起到负向效应。研究表明,产业结构需由东部地区向中西部转移并且升级,劳动力结构也亟需升级,以促进中国各省经济和就业的可持续发展以及不同技能结构人员稳就业。

Based on the Sino-US trade friction background,this paper studies the impact of Sino-US trade surplus on Chinese employment,introduces Cobby-Douglas production function theory as the basis for variable selection,and selects the panel data of 31 provinces(cities)in China from 2001 to 2018 for empirical analysis.Based on this analysis,31 provinces are divided into northeast,east,central and western regions to test their heterogeneity,and their heterogeneity is tested based on different le-vels of labor skills.The results show that the trade surplus with the United States has a positive effect on employment in the pro-vinces,the most significant effect on the central region,followed by the western region,the eastern region and the northeast region are not obvious.The trade surplus with the United States plays a role in promoting employment for low-skilled personnel and negatively for high-skilled personnel.Studies have shown that the industrial structure needs to be transferred and upgraded from the eas-tern region to the central and western regions,and the labor structure needs to be upgraded in order to promote the sustainable development of the economy and employment of various provinces in China and the stable employment of people with different skill structures.