水资源约束下黄河流域产业结构变迁规律及其影响因素

The Law and Influencing Factors of Industrial Structure Change in the Yellow River Basin Under Water Resources Constraints

本文利用2000~2018年面板数据,在测度黄河流域各省产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化的基础上,梳理黄河流域产业结构的变迁规律,考察水资源对产业结构的影响作用。研究发现:(1)黄河流域各省产业结构合理化与高级化关联程度低,产业结构合理化水平差别较大,山东、河南等省产业结构均衡性趋强;产业结构高级化差异较小,各省产业结构均表现出显著的服务化趋势;(2)水效和水质对产业结构合理和高级化均有积极的影响作用,科技投入无论在全流域还是分区域分析中均表现出显著影响;(3)黄河中上游产业结构改善空间更大,对相关影响变量的敏感程度更强。研究认为以科技创新为突破口,提升用水效率,是实现黄河流域产业结构升级的重要途径。

Based on the panel data from 2000~2018 and the measurement of the rationalization and optimization of industrial structure of each province in the Yellow River Basin,the law of industrial structure change in the Yellow River Basin is sorted out,and the impact of water resources on the industrial structure is examined.The results show that:(1)for each province in the Yellow River Basin,the degree of correlation between rationalization and optimization of industrial structure is low;and the level of rationalization of industrial structure varies greatly among provinces,where Shandong and Henan tend to have a strong balance of industrial structure.Besides,there is a little difference of optimization of industrial structure,and the industrial structure of each province shows a significant service-oriented trend.(2)Water efficiency and water quality have a positive impact on the rationalization and optimization of industrial structure,and science and technology investment has a significant impact,whether in the analysis of whole river basin or subregions.(3)The industrial structure of the middle-upper reaches of the Yellow River has more space for improvement and is more sensitive to relevant variables.It is considered that scientific and technological innovation is an important way to upgrade the industrial structure of the Yellow River Basin.