THRIVE量表、mSOAR量表和简易量表对急性缺血性卒中患者1年预后预测价值

THRIVE Scale,mSOAR Scale and Simple Scale Scores for 1-year Prognosis of Patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke

目的:探讨THRIVE量表、mSOAR量表和简易量表对急性缺血性卒中(AIS)患者1年不良预后的预测价值。方法:纳入AIS患者772例,收集患者临床基线资料,同时应用THRIVE量表、mSOAR量表和简易量表进行评分。随访1年,以患者1年时出现死亡或改良Rankin评分(mRS)≥3分为不良预后,应用ROC曲线下面积(AUC)比较3个量表对患者预后的预测价值。结果:本组772例患者根据随访结果,纳入预后良好组576例(74.6%),不良预后组196例(25.4%),其中死亡68例(34.7%)。THRIVE、mSOAR和简易量表预测患者1年不良预后的AUC值分别为0.777[95%CI,(0.738,0.815)]、0.820[95%CI,(0.706,0.770)]和0.854[95%CI,(0.827,0.878)](均P<0.001);THRIVE和mSOAR量表的AUC值均低于简易量表(P<0.05)。THRIVE、mSOAR和简易量表预测死亡结局的AUC值分别为0.775[95%CI,(0.721,0.828)]、0.748[95%CI,(0.716,0.778)]和0.807[95%CI,(0.778,0.835)](均P<0.05);且mSOAR量表的AUC值低于简易量表(P<0.05)。结论:THRIVE、mSOAR和简易量表对AIS患者1年不良预后有较好的预测效能;简易量表的预测能力更优。

Objective:To explore the predictive value of the THRIVE Scale,mSOAR Scale and Simple Scale sores for 1-year adverse prognosis of patients with acute ischemic stroke(AIS).Methods:A total of 772 patients with AIS were enrolled.The clinical baseline data were collected and compared.All the patients were scored with THRIVE Scale,mSOAR Scale and Simple Scale,and were followed up for 1 year.Death or Modified Rankin score(mRS)≥3 points at 1-year were regarded as a poor prognosis.The AUC value of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC)was used to compare the predictive values of the three scales.Results:According to the follow-up results,576 cases(74.6%)were included in good prognosis group and 196 cases(25.4%)were included in poor prognosis group,of which 68 cases(34.7%)died.The AUC values of THRIVE,mSOAR and Simple Scale for 1-year predictive adverse prognosis of AIS patients were 0.777[95%CI,(0.738,0.815)],0.820[95%CI,(0.706,0.770)]and 0.854[95%CI,(0.827,0.878)](all P<0.001).And the AUC values of the THRIVE and mSOAR scales were lower than that of Simple Scale(P<0.05).The AUC values of THRIVE,mSOAR and Simple Scale for death were 0.775[95%CI,(0.721,0.828)],0.748[95%CI,(0.716,0.778)]and 0.807[95%CI,(0.778,0.835)](all P<0.05).And the AUC value of mSOAR scale was lower than that of Simple Scale(P<0.05).Conclusion:THRIVE,mSOAR and Simple Scale have good predictive power for 1-year poor prognosis of AIS patients and the Simple Scale has a better predictive ability.