俄罗斯人口形势现状及发展趋势研究

Research on the Current Situation and Trends of Russian Population Development

独立以来,俄罗斯始终存在着严峻的人口问题。2009年后稍有改善,2013年首次实现了独立后的人口自然正增长,但这种趋势仅维持了3年,2016年起人口死亡率再次高于出生率,2018年移民已经无法弥补人口的自然减少,2019年人口形势也不乐观。通过研究影响一国人口总量的三个变量,即出生率、死亡率和移民变化分析俄目前的人口形势,可以看出近年来俄人口出生率偏低、死亡率过高和移民潜力逐渐丧失是导致人口问题的主要原因。俄官方预测,至2035年全俄人口形势依旧不容乐观。目前,俄推出《至2024年的人口学》国家方案,该方案包括帮助新生儿家庭、支持妇女就业和提供婴幼儿教育等多项计划。然而,要彻底解决人口危机俄仍需努力。

Since its independence,Russia has always had serious population problems.After a slight improvement after 2009,the population after independence achieved natural positive growth for the first time in 2013.However,this trend only lasted for three years.Since 2016,the death rate of the population had again been higher than the birth rate.In 2018,immigrants had been unable to support the natural loss of the population.The population situation in 2019 was not optimistic.From the three variables of birth rate,death rate and immigration changes that affect the total population of a country,it can be seen that the low birth rate,the high mortality rate and lost immigration potential are the main causes of population decline.Russian officials predicted that the population situation in Russia would not be optimistic until 2035.At present,Russia has launched Demography by 2024,which includes multiple programs to help newborn families,support women employment,and provide infant and toddler education.However,Russia still needs to work hard to completely solve the population crisis.