人民币国际化的汇率缓冲效应研究——基于境外人民币存量与人民币结算比重

Research on the Buffering Effect of RMB's Internationalization to Exchange Rate Shock:Based on Offshore RMB Stock and RMB Settlement Ratio

随着人民币国际化进程不断深化,截至2017年底我国货物贸易人民币结算比重已超过10%,导致境外人民币资产存量大幅度增长。与大多研究仅考察人民币结算消除合同签订后汇率波动影响的短期角度不同,本研究考察了人民币结算带来的境外人民币资产存量增长对我国贸易收支的汇率缓冲效应。基于2005年1月—2017年12月共156个月的时间序列数据实证研究发现,跨境贸易人民币结算背景下以香港人民币存款余额代表的境外人民币资产存量越大,人民币名义有效汇率升值对货物贸易收支的负面冲击就越被削弱,区分加工贸易/一般贸易的稳健性检验及针对1975—2016年日元汇率、境外存量与货物贸易收支的国际对比研究也得出了类似结论。且在控制境外人民币存量的前提下人民币结算比重越大,该缓冲效应越明显。随着人民币结算占比不断扩大、境外人民币资产存量与投融资渠道等条件逐步完善,该机制将逐渐对人民币汇率变动下我国的贸易收支起到稳定器和缓冲器作用。

With the development of RMB's globalization,China's RMB settlement in merchandise trade has exceeded 15 percentages by the end of 2017,which brought a large increase of offshore RMB stock.Unlike most research that only focus on the short angle of RMB settlement's influence on offsetting the exchange rate fluctuation after trade contract,this paper studied offshore RMB stock's buffer effect to China's trade balance in RMB's appreciation process.Experiential research based on monthly data from 2005—2017 found that as the offshore RMB denoted by Hong Kong RMB deposit grew bigger,RMB's appreciation's negative shock to trade balance was correspondingly weakened.Robust test distinguishing processing trade and ordinary trade and a contrast research on the relationship among Japanese Yen's exchange rate,offshore Yen stock and Japan's trade balance also resulted in similar conclusion.Controlling the offshore RMB scale,as RMB settlement's share got bigger,the offsetting effect got more significant,which provided a buffering mechanism for the trade balance.