贸易保护壁垒对出口产品的动态影响效应研究——来自中国对美出口HS-6分位产品的证据

The Dynamic Effect of Trade Protection Barriers on Export Trade:Evidence from China's HS-6 Export Products to the US

自2008年国际金融危机全面爆发后,美国贸易保护主义思潮愈演愈烈。本文首次将2009—2017年间美方实施的所有贸易壁垒与中方实际遭受影响的HS-6分位的出口产品进行了匹配,结合面板数据一阶差分与两阶段最小二乘法,系统评估了美国贸易保护政策对中国出口贸易的影响。研究发现,第一,在总体层面,美方贸易壁垒会产生非常显著的“提前出口”预期效应和“抑制出口”持续效应;第二,在行业层面,由于国内进口替代行业的压力,美方贸易壁垒仅对中国具有出口比较优势的行业有显著的影响,而对中国暂时处于比较劣势的行业没有明显的影响;第三,区分贸易壁垒类型,贸易救济措施受制于追溯执行制度,并未产生“提前出口”效应,但“抑制出口”效应非常明显,政府扶持措施和歧视性本地化要求等隐性壁垒对出口的抑制作用同样不容忽视。因此,我国与美方就贸易纠纷进行磋商时,应当针对性地要求对方停止实施各类形式的贸易壁垒,帮助中国出口企业获得公平合理的营商环境。

Since the outbreak of global financial crisis in 2008,the US trade protectionism has been more and more obvious.This paper firstly matches all trade barriers implemented by the US during 2009—2017 with the actual affected HS-6 export products of China,and then uses firstorder difference and two-stage least squares method to systematically evaluate the impact of US trade protectionism policy on China's export.The results show that,firstly,at the overall level,the US trade barriers have significant"advance export"effect and"restraint on export"effect;secondly,at the industry level,due to the pressure of domestic import substitution industry,the US trade barriers have obvious impact on China's industry with comparative advantages,but have no significant impact on China's disadvantaged industry;thirdly,in terms of the trade barrier types,due to retrospective enforcement system,trade defense measures have no significant"advance export"effect,but an obvious"restraint on export"effect,and the restraining effect of hidden barriers such as government support measures and discriminatory localization requirements cannot be ignored.Therefore,when negotiating with the US on trade disputes,China should specifically demand US government to stop implementing various forms of direct and indirect barriers and assure that Chinese export firms can enjoy a fair and reasonable business environment in the US market.