中国真实贸易利益的再评估--基于出口隐含环境成本的研究

Reevaluation on China’s Real Trade Benefit:A Research Based on the Environmental Cost Embodied in Export Value Added

中美贸易摩擦的直接原因在于美方认为中方长期存在的贸易顺差,使得中方获取了所谓的"不平等利益";但是,中国却承担了大量贸易产品生产所导致的环境污染损失。如果忽视该部分,将高估中国的真实贸易利益。文章使用真实贸易隐含污染排放模型核算贸易中隐含的工业污染排放,运用结构性分解模型从排放强度、技术结构、进出口规模、进口品中间投入、进出口结构五个层面分析进出口隐含污染物排放变动的原因,结合ExternE模型和Logistic模型核算贸易中隐含各类污染所带来的经济损失,并将环境成本纳入贸易利益体系,以评估中国真实贸易利益。研究发现:(1)2007-2015年,除了烟(粉)尘的隐含排放量呈V型变化外,更加紧密的行业间生产联系、技术联系以及不断降低的污染排放强度使得其他隐含污染排放均逐年下降,说明减排策略不能依靠牺牲出口规模来实现,而应在污染排放强度、贸易结构升级和污染物末端治理方面做出重点部署。(2)用于出口品生产的进口中间投入需从进口抵减排放中剔除,否则会高估大约23.08%-32.70%的进口隐含废气排放和23.49%-33.59%的进口隐含废水排放,继而导致中国真实贸易利益被高估。(3)工业三废所导致的工业部门出口贸易真实福利的损失每年在9%左右,废气带来的人体健康损失在全部出口隐含排放环境成本中的占比最高,其次是废气带来的农业损失和废水损失。(4)行业贸易贡献率与贸易隐含工业污染物排放、行业经济损失率之间并无直接的必然关系。文章从出口隐含环境成本的角度重新评估了中国的真实贸易利益,回应了所谓的"不公平贸易说"。

The direct cause of Sino-US trade frictions lies in the fact that the US believes that China’s long-standing trade surplus has made China obtain the so-called "unequal interests". However,China bears the environmental pollution loss caused by the production of a large number of trade products in the large volume of import and export trade.This paper uses the real trade implicit pollution emission model to account for the industrial pollution emission implicit in import and export trade,and uses the structural decomposition model to analyze the reasons for the change of the implicit pollution emission in import and export trade from the five aspects of emission intensity,technical structure,import and export scale,import intermediate input and import and export structure,combining with the ExternE model and Logistic model to account for all kinds of implicit pollution emission in the trade. The economic loss caused by pollution and the environmental cost of pollutants are included in the trade interest system to evaluate China’s real trade interest. It comes to the following conclusions:First,in 2007-2015,in addition to the V-shaped change in the implied emissions of smoke(dust),the closer industrial production links,technical links and the decreasing intensity of pollution emissions make the other implied emissions decrease year by year. This shows that the emission reduction strategy cannot be achieved at the expense of export scale,but should focus on the intensity of pollution emission,the upgrading of trade structure and the terminal treatment of pollutants. Second,the import intermediate input for export production should be eliminated from the import credits,otherwise,the import implied emissions of 23.08%-32.70% and the import implied wastewater emissions of 23.49%-33.59% will be overestimated,which will lead to the overestimation of China’s real trade interests. Third,the loss of real welfare of the industrial sector’s export trade caused by the three industrial wastes is about 9% every year. The human health loss caused by the exhaust gas accounts for the highest proportion of the total export implied emission environmental cost,followed by the agricultural loss and waste water loss caused by the exhaust gas. Fourth,there is no direct and inevitable relationship among the contribution rate of trade,the emission of industrial pollutants and the rate of economic loss.The marginal contributions of this paper are mainly reflected in four aspects:First,the implied environmental cost of net export is removed from the net added value of trade to examine a country’s real trade interests. Second,the research on trade implied emissions is further expanded to study the environmental costs and real trade benefits of trade implied emissions,and the research object is also changed from single carbon dioxide emissions to general pollutant emissions. Third,the structural decomposition of the cross-period changes in the emissions of the implied pollutants of value-added trade is carried out in order to find out the impact mechanism behind them. Fourth,the research cycle is 2004-2014,which can make a more objective and in-depth analysis of the implied pollution cost and real trade benefits of China’s value-added trade under different international economic and trade relations before and after the crisis.