高等教育扩招与中国经济增长--来自双重差分法的实证检验

China’s Economic Growth and Its Enrollment Expansion of Higher Education: Evidence from DID

高技能型人力资本是新时代经济增长的重要引擎。中国1999年推行的高等教育扩招政策极大地丰富了中国高技能型人力资本,对中国经济增长产生重要影响。文章基于1997-2015年城市面板数据,利用双重差分方法实证考察了高等教育扩招政策对中国经济增长的影响。研究结果表明:第一,1999年实施的高等教育扩招政策显著地促进了中国经济增长。在剔除相关因素之后,高等教育扩招政策对中国经济增长率的贡献度达到17%-29%。第二,随着时间的推移,高等教育扩招政策的经济增长效应存在报酬递增效应。第三,高等教育扩招政策对经济增长的促进作用存在高校的数量效应和质量效应,即高等教育数量越多,高等教育质量越好,高等教育扩招政策对经济增长的促进效应就越大。第四,高等教育扩招政策对经济增长的促进作用存在空间递减效应,即东部地区最大、中部地区次之、西部地区不显著。因此,新时代保持持续的经济增长,需要充分重视高等教育在经济增长中的作用,以及调整高等教育结构,并提高高等教育质量,同时增强高技能型人力资本与经济发展阶段的匹配程度。

High-skilled human capital is an important engine of economic growth in the new era. China’s higher education enrollment policy introduced in 1999 has greatly increased China’s high-skilled human capital, which has an important impact on China’s economic growth. Based on the data of the city level from 1997 to 2015, this paper empirically examines the economic growth effect of higher education enrollment by means of the double difference method. The results show that: First, the higher education enrollment policy implemented in 1999 significantly promoted China’s economic growth. After eliminating relevant factors, the contribution of that to China’s economic growth rate reached 17%-29%. Second, with the passage of time, the economic growth effect of that has the effect of increasing returns. Third, the economic growth effect of higher education enrollment has the quantitative effect and mass effect of higher education institutions, that is, the more the quantity of higher education, the better the quality of higher education, the greater the policy on economic growth. Fourth, the promotion of that policy on economic growth has a spatial decreasing effect, that is, the largest in the eastern region, the second in the central region, and no significant in the western region. Therefore, to maintain the growth of economic growth in the new era, it is necessary to pay full attention to the role of higher education in economic growth, as well as to adjust the structure of higher education, improve the quality of higher education and enhance the matching degree between high skilled human capital and economic development stage.