特朗普政府东南亚政策的调整

Adjustments of the Trump Administration’s Southeast Asian Policy

奥巴马政府提出"再平衡"政策,将东南亚地区作为政策实施的支点,对该地区的关注在美国外交史上前所未有,美国-东南亚关系由此获得大幅提升。特朗普就任以来,美国聚焦大国竞争,忽视东南亚地区;对外战略中坚持"美国优先",在对东南亚外交中多以自身关切议题为导向;多边主义在美国东南亚政策中被弱化,偏爱双边主义的特朗普政府以修复与泰国、菲律宾的盟友关系及打造支点国家为重点;在军事领域,美国以更大热情介入东南亚地区。区别于奥巴马时期低调处理民主、人权议题,特朗普政府内部官员在总统本人不热衷这一议题的情况下,依旧没有放松对东南亚国家民主、人权状况的审查。政策上的诸多调整导致美国在东南亚地区可信度下降,经济和外交中弱化的多边主义限制美国-东南亚互动空间,而不断强化的军事存在反而使东南亚地区安全形势复杂化。即便"印太战略"突出东南亚国家和东盟的重要性,但未来美国东南亚政策是否能真正体现这种重要性值得关注。未来一段时间美国-东南亚关系很难再重现奥巴马时期的"热闹"景象,这为中国-东南亚关系发展提供了一定的战略空间。

The Obama administration’s "Rebalance to Asia," which made Southeast Asia its strategic fulcrum and accorded the region unprecedented diplomatic attention, greatly improved U.S.-Southeast Asian relations. However, since Trump took office, the U.S. has focused on great power competition, largely ignoring Southeast Asia. Given Trump’s insistence on "America first," the administration’s Southeast Asian policy is basically geared largely toward issues of interest to the U.S. As a result of Trump’s disregard for multilateralism and preference for bilateralism, U.S. Southeast Asian policy has focused on repairing bilateral relations with allies such as Thailand and the Philippines, and deepening relations with pivotal countries. In the military domain, U.S. engagement with Southeast Asia has been more active. Different from the Obama administration’s low profile approach to democracy and human rights, the Trump administration still pays close attention to these issues in the region, despite Trump’s lack of interest in them. These adjustments have reduced U.S. credibility and its ability to interact with the region due to the weakening of multilateralism in the economic and diplomatic domains, while increased U.S. military presence has complicated the security landscape in the region. Although the Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy emphasizes the importance of regional countries and ASEAN, whether U.S. policy can truly reflect this importance or not remains to be seen. In the near future, U.S.-Southeast Asian relations will hardly be as close as it was during the Obama administration, and this offers important strategic space for the development of China-Southeast Asian relations.