尚未触发的“修昔底德陷阱”与美国对华政策

The Untriggerd Thucydides Trap and U.S. China Policy

"修昔底德陷阱"是一个颇具改进潜力的理论机制,简单地批判和拒斥这一概念既无助于拓展对大国竞争的理论研究,也不符合对当前中美关系发展现实的直观感受。如果用军备、冷战竞赛或者破坏性政策来代替战争作为因变量,"修昔底德陷阱"理论更是能够具备相当程度的解释力。不过即使如此,利用该机制来分析当前的中美关系时,仍然要仔细审视这对关系是否适用于该理论的关键逻辑--美国对中国的实力增长真正地感到恐惧。从政治心理学中恐惧的概念出发,结合美国国内的相关讨论、政策表述和对华行为,可以看出美国目前并未恐惧中国,其行为更多是为了追逐利益和声誉,其整体对华外交政策以"碎片化"和"追逐风险收益"为主要特征。这意味着"修昔底德陷阱"可能尚未在双边关系中触发。美国的对华政策的主要变化是将"规范"中国的重点从政治和安全领域转移到经济领域,更多是其对冲战略的重心调整而非"质变"。"修昔底德陷阱"尚未触发的结论有其双重意义:积极而言,不必夸大美国的制华政策,激烈的经贸摩擦并不必然滑向"新冷战";消极而言,中美关系仍然有很大的恶化空间,如果持续互动不当,还会招致更具破坏性的结果。

The concept of the Thucydides trap is has great potential for theoretical refinement. Attempts to just criticize or even shun the concept could neither improve the research on great power competition nor reflect recent developments of Sino-U.S. relations. We can gain greater theoretical purchase if we use arms race, Cold War-like competition or various destructive policies, instead of war, as the dependent variable, thus giving it more explanatory power. But before that, we also need to check whether this important bilateral relationship fits the key premise of the Thucydides trap theory: that the United States truly fears China’s growing power. Based on the concept of fear in political psychology and U.S. statements and actions regarding China, we believe that there is no such fear but merely U.S. pursuit of interests and prestige, and that Washington’s China policy as well as its overall foreign policy is characterized by fragmentation and risktaking. This indicates that the possible Thucydides trap between the two great powers has not yet been triggered. The major change in America’s China policy is a shift from "regulating" China’s international behavior in the political and security domains to doing so in the economic realm. It is more of a readjustment of strategic focus than a wholesale change in purpose. This finding’s implication is two-fold. On a positive note, the Sino-U.S. trade war doesn’t necessarily slide into a new Cold War. On a negative note, however, there is a great chance for serious deterioration, and if the two countries do not take a cautious attitude towards future interactions, this could lead to more destructive consequences.