我国毛乌素沙地荒漠化逆转因素分析

Study on Desertification Reversal Factors in Maowusu Sandy Land in China

根据2000—2015年中国经济社会大数据平台的统计数据,研究分析了我国毛乌素沙地荒漠化发展状况及其影响因素,认为近年来毛乌素沙地呈现出荒漠化逆转的态势。基于探索性分析(EFA)与虚拟变量回归模型(DVRM),对毛乌素沙地荒漠化逆转因素进行了分析,同时为提高研究结论的稳健性,还对回归模型进行了诊断。由于多重共线性问题的存在,研究剔除了虚拟变量交互项的影响。研究认为,年降水量是影响该地区森林覆盖率的主要气候因素,年降水量每增加100 mm,森林覆盖率将会增加10%。此外,年均气温对于森林覆盖率也有显著影响,年均气温每增加1℃,森林覆盖率将会增加2.5%。对政策因素的分析表明,2005年《全国防沙治沙规划(2005—2010)》和2011年《全国防沙治沙规划(2011—2020)》的政策效应相对于2000年的基期水平,能够分别增加3.4%和4.7%的森林覆盖率。研究揭示了气候因素和政策因素对我国毛乌素沙地荒漠化逆转的重要作用,对我国荒漠化管理和相关政策制定等具有重要意义和价值。

Based on the data of China’s economic and social big data platform from 2000 to 2015,this paper analyzed the desertification development situation of Maowusu sandy land and its influencing factors.Climate factors and policy factors were important reasons to promote the improvement of forest coverage.Based on the analysis of variance and regression model of dummy variables,it was found that annual precipitation was the main climatic factor affecting the forest coverage in this region,and the forest coverage rate would increase by 10%for every 100 mm increase of annual precipitation.The average annual temperature also had a significant impact on forest coverage.For every 1℃increased in annual temperature,forest coverage would increase by 2.5%.In addition,policy factors were reflected in the policy effects of the national plan for desertification prevention and control(2005-2010)and the national plan for desertification prevention and control(2011-2020),which can increase the forest coverage rate by 3.4%and 4.7%respectively compared with the base period.The study revealed the important effects of climate and policy factors on desertification reversal of Maowusu sandy land in China,which was of great significance and value to desertification management and related policy-making in China.