柑橘种植规模影响因素的灰色关联度分析——基于信丰县186份农户问卷

Grey Correlation Analysis of Factors Affecting Citrus Planting Scale—Based on a Questionnaire of 186 Households in Xinfeng County

以我国柑橘种植典型区信丰县的186个农户调查数据为依据,选取了15个影响柑橘种植规模的因子,采用灰色关联度、定性与定量相结合的分析方法对柑橘种植规模的影响因素进行了实证分析。结果表明:可租入丘陵山地面积、自家可利用丘陵山地面积以及农户家庭收入是柑橘种植规模的最大影响因素,柑橘种植收入比、农户家庭经济基础、负责人文化程度等影响次之。家庭收入越稳定,经济基础越牢固的农户扩大柑橘种植规模的可能性越大,负责人文化水平较越高,农户平均柑橘种植规模越大。他人种植的正向影响、上升的价格趋向、丰富的种植经验、良好的生产发展环境能够有效促进农户种植柑橘。柑橘种植负责人性别与柑橘种植规模大小无关。该调查结果可为政府制定相关惠农政策和引导农户柑橘种植提供参考。

Based on the survey data of 186 farmers in Xinfeng County,a typical area of citrus planting in China,15 factors affecting the scale of citrus planting were selected.The combination of gray correlation degree,qualitative and quantitative analysis method was used to analyze the scale of citrus planting under the impact of Huanglong disease.The influencing factors were empirically analyzed.The results showed that the area of hilly land that can be rented,the area of hills and hills that can be used by the family,and the income of farmers’households are the biggest influencing factors of citrus planting scale.The income ratio of citrus planting,the economic foundation of farmers’families,and the educational level of the responsible persons are second.The more stable the household income,the stronger the economic base,the more likely the farmers to expand the scale of citrus cultivation,the higher the cultural level of the responsible person,and the larger the average citrus cultivation of the farmers.The positive impact of other people’s planting,rising price trends,rich planting experience,and a good production and development environment can effectively promote farmers to grow citrus.The gender of the citrus planter has nothing to do with the size of the citrus planting.The survey results can provide reference for the government to formulate relevant agricultural policies and guide farmers to grow citrus.