跨境恐怖主义的威胁评估及其治理——以孟中印缅经济走廊沿线为例

Threat Assessment and Governance of Cross-Border Terrorism Challenge:BCIM Economic Corridor as an Example

跨境恐怖主义是影响孟中印缅经济走廊机制化建设的一个关键因素。哥本哈根学派提出的"地区安全复合体"理论,可以被借鉴地运用到孟中印缅经济走廊的跨境恐怖主义威胁评估中。通过考察孟中印缅经济走廊跨境恐怖主义的活动强度,可以发现中缅边境的跨境恐怖主义风险相对较低,孟印边境的跨境恐怖主义风险很高,缅孟、印缅边境的跨境恐怖主义风险则处于中等状态。以双边合作为基础,尽快建立和完善多方参与的安全合作机制,特别是加快推动"一带一路"倡议的建设成果在孟中印缅经济走廊区域落地生根,将有助于本区域跨境恐怖主义问题的最终解决。

“Regional Security Complex Theory” (RSCT ) proposed by the Copenhagen School can be used to assess cross-border terrorism threat along BCIM Economic Corridor. A comprehensive exploration along BCIM Economic Corridor unveiled that the risk of cross-border terrorism along China-Myanmar border is relatively low, while that along Bangladesh-India border is much more serious. It is observed that enhancement of bilateral cooperation, timely establishment and improvement of multilateral security cooperation mechanism, accelerated development of BICM Ecomonic Corridor, will be of great value for effective countermeasures against cross-border terrorism in the region.