基于RUSLE的未来降雨条件下江苏省沿江地区土壤侵蚀预估

Estimation of Soil Erosion Along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province Based on RUSLE in Future Rainfall Conditions

近年来极端气候事件频发,多地区强降雨的增多加重了土壤侵蚀程度。采用世界气候研究计划组织的耦合模式比较计划第五阶段实验计划(CMIP5)中BCC_CSM1.1模式在RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5三种气候变化情景下的未来降雨降尺度输出结果,结合GIS和修正的通用土壤流失方程(RUSLE)预估江苏省沿江地区未来土壤侵蚀程度,并分析未来不同气候变化情景下土壤侵蚀与降雨的相关性及空间分布特征。结果表明,不同气候变化情景下,江苏省沿江地区的平均土壤侵蚀模数为1.58~1.65t/(hm^2·a),土壤侵蚀总量为764.70×10^4~794.65×10^4t/a,土壤侵蚀占总土地面积的32.503%~32.504%,土壤侵蚀烈度与降雨量大小呈正相关。

In recent years,extreme weather events have occurred frequently,and the increase of heavy rainfall in many regions has increased the degree of soil erosion.This paper uses the future climate downscaling output of the BCC_CSM1.1 model under three climate change scenarios of RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5 in the Phase 5 Experimental Plan(CMIP5)of the Coupling Model Comparison Plan organized by the World Climate Research Program.Combined with the GIS and modified general soil loss equation(RUSLE),the future soil erosion prediction in the Yangtze River region of Jiangsu Province is carried out,and the correlation and spatial distribution characteristics of soil erosion and rainfall are analyzed under different climate change scenarios.The results show that under different climate change scenarios,the average soil erosion modulus of the study area is 1.58-1.65 t/(hm^2·a),the total soil erosion is 764.70-794.65 million t/a,and the soil erosion accounts for 32.503%-32.504% of the total land area.The rainfall size is positively correlated with the soil erosion intensity.