分析师留学经历与盈利预测质量

Analysts'Overseas Education Experience and the Quality of Earnings Forecasts

基于2005-2015年期间的分析师预测数据,本文研究发现,相对于非留学分析师,具有海外留学经历的分析师的预测准确性更低,通过分组检验发现,上述结果主要存在于分析师的从业初期和分析师与企业高管之间不具有社会关系时。进一步研究发现,分析师留学越早,时间越长,其预测准确性相对越低。另外,当企业公开信息质量较高时,海外留学分析师与非留学分析师在预测准确性上的差异消失。由此可见,在我国关系型社会中,海外留学归国分析师在认知和获取私有信息方面存在相对劣势,其并没有提供更高质量的盈余预测。本文的研究发现丰富了有关分析师预测质量的研究文献,同时也为当前规范和提高企业信息披露质量的制度改革提供了资本市场的经验证据。

Based on the data between 2005 and 2015,this study finds that compared to local peers,analysts with overseas education experience have lower earnings forecasts accuracy and this finding is only significant when analysts are in their early career stage and there is no social relationship be-tween analysts and corporate managements.Further research finds that the earlier and longer the time of studying abroad,the lower the forecasts accuracyby analysts with overseas education experience.And when the followed corporations have high-quality public information,the disadvantage of analystswith overseas education in forecasts accuracy disappeared.All of this evidence shows that in a relationship based transaction background,analysts with o-versea education experience have disadvantage in understanding and getting private information and so do not supply more accurate earnings forecasts.This paper enriches the research literature on the factors of analysts'forecast quality and provides empirical evidence support to the current regulating and impro-ving the quality of corporation's information disclosure.