基于湿润指数距平率的水稻干旱灾损评估——以四川省为例

Assessment of Yield Loss of Rice Caused by Drought Based on Wetness Index Anomaly Rate——Take Sichuan Province for Example

利用四川省水稻主要种植区6个典型代表站点1961-2015年的逐日气象资料、水稻生育期和产量等资料,计算了水稻各生育阶段内的湿润指数距平率,建立干旱影响下水稻气象产量与湿润指数距平率的统计模型,开展了水稻干旱灾损评估.结果表明:移栽到孕穗期和孕穗到开花期,蓬安的干旱指数有显著增加的趋势;开花到成熟期,仁寿、蓬安、开江、甘洛的干旱指数有显著的增加趋势.分离水稻气象产量后,构建了干旱影响下水稻各生育阶段干旱指数与气象产量的统计模型,验证结果表明该模型能反映各生育阶段干旱对水稻产量的影响.灾损评估结果指出,干旱影响下,四川水稻种植区代表站点水稻减产率在1.7%~7.2%.

In this study,based on rice production data(development stage and yield)and the meteorological observation data during 1961-2015 at six typical meteorological stations of Sichuan Province,the wetness index anomaly rate of different growth stages of rice was calculated,a statistical model of the meteorological yield of rice under drought and wetness index anomaly rate was established to estimate the risk and yield loss of rice caused by drought disasters in the province The results showed that the drought index from transplanting to booting and from booting to flowering increased significantly in Peng'an,and that from flowering to maturity increased significantly in Renshou,Peng'an,Kaijiang and Ganluo.After clarifying the meteorological yields of rice during the years in which drought occurred,a statistical model describing the relationships between drought index and meteorological yield was constructed.The model could comprehensively reflect the impact of drought on rice at different growth stages.Yield loss assessment showed that the yield loss of rice caused by drought was between 1.7%and 7.2%.