中国房价泡沫的城市差异与扩散特征

Urban Differences and Diffusion Characteristics of China’s Housing Price Bubbles

文章利用中国99个样本城市的数据,借助上确界单位根检验及其拓展——SADF检验和GSADF检验的方法,系统研究了中国城市房地产市场是否存在房价泡沫以及房价泡沫的扩散特征。结果发现:中国一、二线城市普遍存在房价泡沫,三、四线城市大多不存在房价泡沫;各个城市房价泡沫的持续期存在明显差异,同一规模的城市房价泡沫特征也不尽相同;京津冀、长三角和珠三角的一线城市房地产市场处于长期维持泡沫的状态,且其刚性和投机需求向周边三四线城市外溢,形成了区域性泡沫;不同区域都有特定的房价“泡沫源”。

This paper uses the data of 99 sample cities in China to make a systematic study on whether there is a housing price bubble in the real estate market of Chinese cities and its diffusion characteristics with the help of the supremum unit root test and its extension--SADF test and GSADF test.The study results are as follows:Housing price bubbles are prevalent in China's first-tier and second-tier cities,while they are absent in most third-tier and fourth-tier cities;the duration of housing price bubbles in different cities is obviously different,and the characteristics of housing price bubbles in cities of the same size are also different;the housing market of the first-tier cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the Yangtze River Delta region and the Pearl River Delta region is in a state of long-term bubbles maintenance,and their rigid demand and speculative demand overflow to the surrounding third-tier and fourth-tier cities,thus forming a regional bubble;different regions have their particular housing price“bubble source”.