劳动力供给要素变迁对制造业转型升级影响的统计检验

Statistical Test of Influence of Labor Supply Factor Change on Transformation and Upgrading of Manufacturing Industry

文章在引入Cobb-Douglas生产函数的基础上,构建制造业转型升级的驱动要素面板数据计量模型,从全国及主要经济带双维度实证检验劳动力供给要素变迁对制造业转型升级的影响。结果表明,在全国层面,劳动力规模对劳动密集型制造业呈正向弹性效应,但对资本与技术密集型制造业呈负向的抑制效应,劳动力质量弹性系数与劳动力规模呈相反表征状态,而劳动力成本弹性检验中劳动力密集型制造业敏感程度最高。在各经济带检验中,泛珠江三角洲和环渤海经济带的劳动力规模对资本密集型制造业产生正向效应,而各经济带的劳动力质量、劳动力成本分别对劳动密集型制造业呈显著正向与负向效应,并揭示了长江三角洲、泛珠江三角洲和环渤海经济带制造业向技术、资本以及“跨越式”转型模式的偏向性选择。同时,制造业转型升级整体上已初步形成对低端制造业的倒逼机制,但倒逼强度偏弱。

Based on the introduction of Cobb-Douglas production function,this paper constructs the panel data econometric model of driving factors for the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry,and then empirically examines the impact of labor supply factor change on the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry from two dimensions of the whole country and major economic zones.The results show that,at the national level,labor scale has a positive elastic effect on labor-intensive manufacturing industry,but a negative inhibitory effect on capital and technology intensive manufacturing industry.The elasticity coefficient of labor quality is the opposite representation of labor scale,and labor-intensive manufacturing industry is the most sensitive in the labor cost elasticity test.In the test of each economic zone,the scale of labor force in Pan Pearl River Delta and Bohai economic zone has a positive effect on capital intensive manufacturing industry,while the quality and cost of labor force in each economic zone have a significant positive and negative effect on labor intensive manufacturing industry,revealing that the manufacturing industry in the Yangtze River Delta,Pan Pearl River Delta and Bohai Rim Economic Zone has a biased preference to technology,capital and"leapfrog"transformation mode.At the same time,the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry as a whole has initially formed a backforce mechanism against low-end manufacturing industry,but the backforce intensity is weak.