地方政府债券复杂网络结构及系统性风险特征

Complex Network Structure and Systemic Risk Characteristics of Local Government Bonds

文章通过构建地方政府与银行之间的复杂网络,运用省级债券数据,研究地方政府债券网络整体性、结构性特征及系统性风险特征。研究表明,地方政府债券关系数量的规模和密度稳定,债务额度的规模与密度扩大,脆弱度上升,说明地方政府债务系统性风险不断累积,网络稳定性下降;网络内部存在较短的风险传导路径;银行节点间存在较大的中心性差异;政府间存在需要倍加风险控制的中心性异常节点;凝聚子群分派数量增多,政府核心区域数量增加,反映出债券网络系统性风险传染愈加复杂。

This paper constructs a complex network between local governments and banks,and then uses the provincial bond data to study the integrity,structural and systemic risk characteristics of government bond network.The research shows that the size and density of the number of local government bond relationships are stable,while bonds scale and density of weight of network is enlarged and the vulnerability is rising,indicating that systemic risk of the local government debt is accumulated continuously and the network stability is decreased;there exist shorter risk transmission paths among the network,large differences of centrality between bank nodes,central abnormal nodes that need to double the risk control among governments;the number of condensed subgroups and that of government core areas increase,reflecting the growing complexity of systemic risk contagion in the bond network.