城市脆弱性时空动态演变及关键致脆因子分析--以河南省为例

Temporal and spatial dynamic evolution and key fragility factor analysis of urban vulnerability: taking Henan Province for example

基于耦合视角,从资源脆弱性、生态环境脆弱性、经济脆弱性、社会脆弱性四个方面选取了31个指标,构建城市脆弱性评价模型,从总体脆弱性、时空特征和关键致脆因子三个方面对2007-2016年河南省及各辖市城市脆弱性进行分析。结果表明,十年间河南省整体脆弱性经历了轻微反弹、快速下降和缓慢平稳下降的演变,总体脆弱性呈下降状态,但问题依然严峻;受经济社会发展水平和政策支持等影响,城市间脆弱性差异明显;脆弱性整体呈现出南高北低的地理位置格局,省会郑州市对周围城市脆弱性影响显著,形成以其为核心的较低脆弱圈层;规模以上工业企业资产负债率、用水普及率及生活垃圾无害化处理率是制约城市健康发展的主导因素,且各致脆因素的出现具有一定的稳定性。

Based on the coupling perspective,31 indicators were selected from four aspects: resource vulnerability,ecological environment vulnerability,economic vulnerability and social vulnerability. The urban vulnerability assessment model was constructed to analyze the urban fragility of Henan Province and its municipalities from 2007 to 2016 from three aspects: overall vulnerability,time and space characteristics and key brittleness factors. The results show that the overall vulnerability of henan province has experienced a slight rebound,a rapid decline and a slow and steady decline in the past ten years. Affected by the level of economic and social development and policy support,the vulnerability difference between cities is obvious.The overall vulnerability presents a geographical pattern of high south and low north. The provincial capital of zhengzhou has a significant impact on the vulnerability of surrounding cities,forming a low vulnerability circle with its core. The asset-liability ratio,water penetration rate and harmless disposal rate of household waste of industrial enterprises above the scale are the leading factors restricting the healthy development of cities,and the emergence of various embrittlement factors has a certain stability.