工业化失速、房地产混同与中国城镇化进程的动力机制转换

Stall of Industrialization,Confusion of Real Estate and Dynamic Mechanism Transformation of Urbanization in China

为了论证中国城镇化进程中的动力机制正在转换以及探讨其如何转换的问题,基于2005—2018年中国国内30个省份的面板数据,引入新的观察窗口——“时间”“空间”以及“时空综合”窗口开展动态及多维观察。结果表明:(1)第一系列研究中,工业化对城镇化的影响正在淡化;服务业对城镇化进程的影响正在加强。(2)第二系列研究中,数据“相悖”事实,从三个方向表明应该对“房地产投资越高,越有利于城镇化发展”的观点持审慎态度;窗口“背离”怪象,其深层次原因在于当中西部地区从“双向促进”机制滑向“双向抑制”机制的同时,东部地区也从“半健康”状态演变到“亚健康”状态。总之,传统工业化正在失速,房地产与城镇化不能、也不应混同。适时抓住信息化引致的传统工业化的转型机遇,是通向未来的必然选择,未来的城镇化进程的竞争归根到底是品位的竞争。

Urbanization is China's name for urbanization,an international common concept.Although actively identifying and understanding the dynamic mechanism of urbanization not only plays a vital role in the sustainable and reasonable development of urbanization in the country,but also concerns the future of a country and a nation.However,the problem of urbanization is extremely complicated:urbanization seems to stretch in a natural state,urbanization is easily disorientated by the design of artificial policies,and the problem of urbanization is extremely complicated because of its diversity and intersection.The most urgent thing is that the conclusions drawn from the existing studies on the dynamic mechanism of urbanization are not only loose,but also completely contradictory.In particular,it is necessary to establish a new research model and open up a new path.The research here is a useful attempt based on such thinking.It starts with two key issues:(1)What is the actual impact of industrialization on China's urbanization process?(2)How to view the relationship between real estate investment and regional urbanization in China?The purpose is to answer these doubts:the existing research on the dynamic mechanism of urbanization has not only drawn loose conclusions,but even completely opposite conclusions:if industrialization is the starting point of urbanization,will the force of industrialization on urbanization remain unchanged?If the development of real estate industry and the urbanization process are twin sisters entangled with each other,then should the development of the real estate industry and urbanization be treated equally or differently?The research ideas are as follows:(1)Based on the theoretical analysis,the following assumptions are observed dynamically through empirical data:China's industrialization and urbanization also have closely related history(Assumption 1A).The process of industrialization and urbanization in China has a loose trend(Assumption 1B).The relationship between China's service industry and the urbanization process is gradually strengthening(Assumption 1C).(2)Based on the deduction of the model,through empirical data,it is revealed whether two special situations beyond the equilibrium point of labor transfer and real estate investment are true.For convenience of discussion,it is converted into three hypotheses:if the level of real estate investment can be found to promote the urbanization process,and the urbanization process can be found to promote real estate investment,the region can be considered to be in a healthy phase of the relationship between real estate investment and urbanization development(Assumption 2A).If it is found that real estate investment is driving the urbanization process,and the urbanization process is inhibiting the further development of real estate investment,it can be considered that the region is in the'having a city nota market'relationship stage(Assumption 2B).If it is found that real estate investment is inhibiting the deepening of urbanization process while urbanization process is driving real estate investment,it can be considered that the region is in the'having a city nota market'relationship stage(Assumption 2C).The innovation of the research method in here is reflected in the following aspects:theoretical analysis and hypothesis are based on the synergy of classical theories and how to combine with local reality;on the one hand,existing theories based on the assumption that industrialization has the same effect on urbanization,such as"abnormal urbanization"theory and"industrialization deviation"theory,cannot explain the fact that industrialization is fading away from urbanization,not to mention the existence of"industrialization stall".However,it finds that if we take use of the synergy of classical theories,such as cyclic cumulative causality,Qian-Sai development model,and the interaction theory between industrialization and urbanization process,it is a brand-new direction found here.On the other hand,the opposing views of real estate investment on the value of urbanization process also need to be further clarified.Fortunately,based on the premise of the HT model,the cost-benefit equilibrium model of farmers and real estate investors constructed by Zhao(2006)points out the feasible direction for the discussion.Finally,the research from Zhang et al.(2005)has brought inspiration for the final achievement of the space-time window.Although we have drawn lessons from Zhanget et al.(2005)on the practice of virtual variables,it is a very great innovationnot including the three virtual variables into a regression equation at the same time,but choosing an independent inclusion method.It is worth mentioning that the change that has created conditions for the two unexpected discoveries here.As for data,we use panel datas of 30 provincial administrative units in China from 2005 to 2018.Relevant data are taken from China Statistical Yearbook and statistical yearbooks of provinces and cities.In addition,there are new findings in the descriptive statistical process,with the average urbanization rate reaching 53.53,indicating that after the accelerated increase in China's urbanization rate since the middle and late 1990s,there is still a long path for further development,while industrialization and the tertiary industry are stuck,which highlights the research value The main conclusions are as follows:(1)In the first series of studies,the impact of industrialization on urbanization is fading.Taking the eastern region as an example,the"exception"in the eastern region provides us with a daydream that,as the forefront of China's economy,it will have significant positive opportunities at a certain period adjacent to or apart from the first sub-sample period.The impact of service industry on the urbanization process is strengthening.Similarly,taking the eastern region as an example,the eastern region is calling for the birth of a new service industry.In another words,it is timely to develop high-end service industry and modern manufacturing industry in line with the development of times.(2)In the second series of studies,the fact that the time window and the space window are"contrary"to the whole sample data indicates from three directions that a cautious attitude should be taken to the view that"the higher the real estate investment,the more favorable the urbanization development".We have also caught the strange phenomenon of"deviation"between the time and the space window.The deep-seated reason is that,while the central and western regions have slipped from a"two-way promotion"mechanism to a"two-way inhibition"mechanism,the eastern regions have also evolved from a"semi-healthy"state to a"sub-healthy"state.The policy suggestion is that,it is an inevitable choice to seize the transformation opportunity of traditional industrialization caused by informatization in due course,and the competition in the future urbanization process is ultimately the competition of taste.In short,compared with previous studies,the contributions of here are reflected in the following three aspects:in the research ideology,the past practice of trying to explain all urbanization dynamic problems with a single theory is changed,and the synergy of multiple theories is sought;In terms of research methods,three windows of"time","space"and"space-time integration"are set up as tools to observe the transformation of China's urbanization dynamic development mechanism in a dynamic and diversified way.In conclusion,traditional industrialization is stalling.Real estate and urbanization cannot and should not be confused.The"deviation"between time window and space window is not illusion,but vivid evidence that the dynamic mechanism of urbanization is moving in the process of dynamic and diversified transformation.