限购限贷政策对城市人口迁移的影响——基于动态随机一般均衡模型的政策模拟

The Impact of Purchase and Credit Restriction on Urban Population Migration:Policy Simulation Based on a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

构建一个动态随机一般均衡模型对家庭的迁移决策进行理论刻画,量化模拟房地产价格渠道下限购限贷政策对城市人口迁移的影响。其中,限购政策使城市房地产需求降低,限贷政策使城市首付款比例提高。结果表明,限购限贷政策通过有效抑制房地产价格降低了人口迁移成本,导致城市人口迁移率显著提升。相较于单独实行限购或限贷政策,“双限”政策的作用更加明显。与此同时,人口迁移在结构上表现出较强的异质性,由于受到信贷约束,房地产价格变动对非耐心家庭迁移决策的影响要显著高于耐心家庭。仅就房地产价格渠道而言,限购限贷政策客观上有利于增强城市对外来人才的吸引力。

Formulate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to simulate the impact of purchase and credit restriction on urban population migration.Purchase restriction decreases housing demand,while credit restriction increases down payment ratio.It turns out that purchase and credit restriction significantly increases the mobility by restricting housing price,which affects the migration cost.A policy that restricts both purchase and credit is more powerful than a single instrument.Due to the credit constraint,impatient household's migration decision is more sensitive to housing price than patient household.The relationship between recent restriction policy and human resource competition is shed light on.