2020—2021年中国宏观经济预测与分析

Macroeconomic Forecasts for China in 2020-2021

2020年初,新冠肺炎病毒(Covid-19)的爆发短期内给中国经济运行带来较大的挑战。应用中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM),在对未来两年共八个季度中国宏观经济主要指标进行预测的同时,可对2020年对冲疫情冲击所需的不同力度的宏观政策组合效应进行模拟分析。结果表明:(1)在乐观、保守和悲观情景下,2020年中国GDP增速预计将分别下滑至5.09%、4.59%和3.18%;(2)为实现两个“翻一番”目标、确保全面建成小康社会目标的实现(即2020年GDP增速要达到5.62%),2020年需加大宏观政策的对冲力度:在乐观情景下可通过推进LPR改革,使市场利率下降20—60个基点,配合财政支出增速从2019年的8.2%提高至15.3%左右,其他情景下政策力度还需进一步加大。面对经济增速下降,相关部门要在2020年一季度出台各项应对疫情冲击的短期政策的基础上,进一步加大逆周期调节政策对冲力度,以确保在推进经济结构调整的同时稳定经济增长。

The outbreak of the new coronavirus Covid-19 at the beginning of 2020 will pose a greater challenge to the short-term operation of the Chinese economy.Using the China Quarterly Macroeconomic Model(CQMM),this article forecasts the main indicators of China’s macro-economy in the next two years under the impact of the current epidemic.It also explores the ways of stabilizing economic growth and ensuring the realization of the goal of building a well-off society through a combination of monetary and fiscal policies.This is the 28th forecast made by Xiamen University’s research team on China’s macro-economy.The results show that:(1)in the optimistic,conservative and pessimistic scenarios,China’s GDP growth rate is expected to decline to 5.09%,4.59% and 3.18% in 2020,respectively;and(2)in the optimistic scenario,to ensure the realization of the goal of building a well-off society(requiring a GDP growth rate of 5.62% in 2020),the market interest rate can be reduced by 20 to 60 basis points by advancing the LPR reform while the growth rate of fiscal expenditure should increase from 8.2% in 2019 to about 15.3%(about 1.8 trillion yuan exceeding in expenditure).Therefore,the research team recommends that in 2020,in the face of declining economic growth,based on the various short-term policies to deal with the impact of the epidemic in the first quarter,the scale of counter-cyclical adjustment policy should be expanded to ensure the adjustment of the economic structure and the stability of economic growth.