“百年未有之大变局”的历史逻辑——基于资本-劳动两阶段增长模型的分析

An Analysis of the Historic Logic of the“Great Change Unseen in a Hundred Years”:Based on the Analysis of a Two-phases Growth Model Composed of Capital and Labor

“百年未有之大变局”已成为中国战略界的共识。要寻找“百年变局”的历史逻辑,必须将这一判断放置在一个更一般的增长模型框架内精心讨论。按照两阶段增长模型,经济增长是由资本型增长和劳动型增长构成的一个动态过程。这一增长模型在全球分工格局的空间投影是在美元驱动下形成的创造资本的“中心国家”和依靠劳动的“边缘国家”。资本与劳动的多寡是由这两个变量的相互关系定义的,资本短缺导致拥有资本的阶层在分配中又攫取了财富的绝大部分,进而导致中美贸易冲突。就未来全球的分工格局而言,土地金融推动中国成为资本创造大国,动摇了已经维持百年的国际分工秩序。资本与劳动的镜像对偶关系决定了任何宏观经济政策本质上都是在二者之间进行权衡取舍。转型经济的一大特点,就是两种增长阶段并存,由此对中国的宏观经济政策而言,采用同时兼顾资本密集和劳动密集两个阶段的双轨制可能是最佳选择。如何实现从劳动密集向资本密集的增长转型,又不引发大国间的战略对决,是中国将与全球一起共同面对的百年未有之大变局。

The“great change unseen in a hundred years”has become a consensus in China’s strategic community.To find its historical logic,this judgment must be carefully discussed within the framework of a more general growth model.According to the two-stage growth model,economic growth is a dynamic process composed of capital growth and labor growth.The spatial projection of this growth model in the global pattern of division of labor is the dollar-driven formation of capital-creating central countries and labor-dependent peripheral countries.The amount of capital and labor is defined by the relationship between these two variables.The shortage of capital causes the class who owned capital to obtain the majority of the wealth in the distribution,which leads to the trade conflicts between China and the United States.In terms of the future division of labor in the world,land finance has driven China to become a capital creation power,shaking the international division of labor order that has been maintained for a century.The existence of a mirror-image dual relationship between capital and labor determines that any macroeconomic policy is essentially a trade-off between the two.One of the characteristics of the transition economy is the coexistence of two growth stages.Therefore,for China’s macroeconomic policy,it may be the best choice to adopt the dual regulation that gives consideration to both capital-intensive and labor-intensive stages.How to make the transition from labor-intensive growth to capital-intensive growth without triggering a strategic showdown between major powers is the biggest change that China and the rest of the world will face,which is exactly the profound meaning of the“great change unseen in a hundred years”.