新疆重点雹区防雹作业效果检验评估

Evaluation of Hail Suppression Effect in Major Hail Prone Areas of Xinjiang

利用1976-2013年新疆主要冰雹多发地区及新疆总的年冰雹灾害面积资料,依据所选地人工防雹业务发展关键历史节点,确定其科学开展人工防雹作业年份。采用Welch检验、t检验等统计学方法,以年冰雹灾害面积作为统计变量,对所选的新疆主要冰雹多发区,以及新疆总体科学开展人工防雹作业前后的显著性进行评估分析,以得出新疆重点雹灾区人工防雹作业效果。结果表明:科学开展人工防雹作业后,阿克苏地区防雹减灾效果达到0.01的显著性水平。在显著性水平α=0.01时,年平均减少冰雹灾害面积15062.9 hm^2,相对减少43.14%,按农业生产值计算,年平均减少冰雹灾害损失28109万元,年平均挽回农业生产值损失3.49%,年平均投入产出比1∶6;利用区域回归分析法得出,年平均减少冰雹灾害面积23802 hm^2,相对减少54.5%,年平均减少冰雹灾害造成损失44417万元,年平均挽回农业生产值损失5.51%,年平均投入产出比为1∶10,显著性水平高达0.01;奎玛流域和伊犁河谷地区显著性水平均为α=0.2,未达到0.05的临界值,因此显著性一般;新疆总体防雹减灾效果显著性水平α=0.05,减灾效果显著。在显著性水平α=0.01时,新疆年平均减少冰雹灾害面积3374.3 hm2,相对减少4.1%,换算成农业生产值,年平均减少冰雹灾害损失6663.6万元,年平均挽回农业生产值损失0.09%;兵团博乐垦区和五家渠垦区防雹减灾效果显著度均为α=0.05,减灾效果显著。

Based on the annual hail disaster area data of the major hail prone areas in Xinjiang from1976 to 2013,the year in which artificial hail prevention operation was carried out scientifically was determined according to the key historical nodes of the development of the artificial hail suppression operation in the selected regions.The Welch test,t test and other statistical methods were used to evaluate and analyze the overall significance before and after the scientific hail prevention operation,so as to obtain the effect of hail prevention operation in the key hail disaster areas in Xinjiang.The results showed that hail prevention and disaster reduction effect in Aksu area reached the significant level of 0.01.At the significance level of 0.1,the mean annual hail disaster area reduced by 15062.9 hm^2,accounts for 43.14%.Calculated by agricultural production value,the annual average hail disaster loss reduction was 281.09 million RMB.The annual average input-output ratio was 1∶6.Regional regression analysis showed that the annual average hailstorm area decreased by 23,802 hm^2,accounted for 54.5%.The annual average economic loss caused by hail reduced by 444.17 million RMB,and the annual average input-output ratio was 1∶10,with a high significance level of 0.01.The significance level in Kuitun-Manas valley and Ili River valley did not reach a significance level of0.05.The overall hail prevention and disaster reduction effect in Xinjiang was significant at the level of 0.05.At the significance level of 0.1,the annual average hailstorm area in Xinjiang decreased by 3374.3 hm^2,a relative decrease of 4.1%.When converted into agricultural output value,the annual average hailstorm loss was reduced by 66.636 million RMB,and the annual average hailstorm loss was recovered by 0.09%.The hail prevention and disaster reduction effect in the Bole and Wujiaqu reclamation area was significant at the level of 0.05.