胁迫式外交:战略竞争时代美国对外战略的转型

Coercive Diplomacy:the Transformation of US Foreign Strategy in the Era of Strategic Competition

以特朗普政府2017年《国家安全战略报告》和2018年《国防战略报告》为标志,世界进入美国启动的战略竞争新时期,地缘政治争夺和大国竞争再度成为世界政治的突出主题。美国重振和维护世界主导地位的目标未变,但"胁迫式外交"成为特朗普政府推行对外战略的常态,美国对外行为出现了冷战结束以来最为显著的变化,表现为重新激活战略军事威慑以压制战略军事竞争对手、以贸易热战和科技冷战方式打压战略经济竞争对手、以政治勒索方式逼盟友承担义务、以极限施压方式压制地区敌对国家、以退群和搅局方式阻挠多边外交。美国推行胁迫式外交与特朗普个人的执政风格相关,但根本性的原因是国际政治权力结构的重大变化和战略竞争时代的来临,推动美国对外权力输出发生了转型性变化。这也意味着美国对外权力输出方式正在发生从软实力向硬实力、从依赖制度优势向依赖实力优势的巨大偏转。美国所谓国际"领导力"正加速蜕变为维护美国特权的"胁迫力",美国权力输出的这种变化可能代表着未来美国外交发展的一种长期趋势。

Marked by US National Security Strategy 2017 and US National Defense Strategy 2018 issued by the Trump administration, the world has entered a new period of strategic competition initiated by the US, with geopolitical contention and major country competition once again becoming the outstanding theme of world politics. The US has not changed its objective of achieving national rejuvenation and preserving its global dominance, but coercive diplomacy has become a new normal of US foreign strategies pursued by the Trump administration, in which diplomatic behavior of the US has changed most obviously since the end of the Cold War. Such a change is reflected in reactivating strategic military deterrence to subdue strategic military rivals, waging a hot war in trade and a cold war in science and technology to suppress strategic economic rivals, forcing allies to undertake more responsibilities by political blackmail, overcoming hostile regional states through maximum pressure, and blocking multilateral diplomacy by withdrawing from international treaties and organizations Although American pursuit of coercive diplomacy is closely related with Trump’s personal ruling style, the root cause lies in the major change of international political power structure and the herald of an era featuring strategic competition, which has promoted the transformation of American external power output. This means that the way of American external power output is fundamentally changed from exporting soft power to exporting hard power, and from depending on institutional superiority to relying on advantages in national strength. The American global "leadership" is fast changing into a "coercive force" that is intended to defend American prerogatives. Such a change in the way of American power output may represent a long-term development trend of American diplomacy in the future.