新冠疫情期间武汉市线下娱购出行管控效应实证分析

Empirical Study on the Effect of Offline Shopping and Entertainment Travel Restrictions in Wuhan During the Epidemic Period

出行方式管理是城市防疫抗疫工作中的一项重大公共事务,新冠疫情期间,武汉市实施了最严格的个人出行管制,并控制、封闭了进出武汉的大通道。文章基于城市居民线下娱购出行方式视角,应用2018-2019年出行调查数据,对选择机制展开了多项Logit建模,总结了武汉市疫情期间出行管控的积极效用。研究认为:管控效用的发挥分为了两个重要阶段,其标志分别为"停运禁行公交及小汽车、封闭公路通道""社区管制、家庭自我隔离"。武汉市创造性地发展了一套"基于购物单元的网选需求共递"举措,用线上网购与合并运输的形式,有效地补充了出行管控期间,居民线下基本生活的购物不足。武汉市渐进解除步行和公交车出行方式管控,将释放购买蔬菜生鲜和日用品的线下购物需求,促进社区商业网点及大型零售商业中心的业务回暖,改善武汉市中低收入人群出行质量。解除管控过程须重点关注60岁以上老年男性、18岁以下中小学生、公交站点密集地带。研究建议优先解禁电动车和自行车,对中小学开学前的学习用品实施需求管理。研究结论为全球新冠肺炎防治的"中国方案"和"武汉经验",补充了理论认知与解释。

Travel mode restrictions is a major public issue in the city’s fight against the epidemic.Wuhan has implemented the strictest personal travel control and has lock downed the whole city.Based on the perspective of urban residents’shopping and entertainment travel modes,this paper applies travel survey data from 2018 to 2019,to perform multiple logit modeling of the selection mechanism and summarize the positive effects of Wuhan’s travel control.The research believes that the control effectiveness is divided into two stages.The signs of the first stage are the halt of public transportation,the prohibition on cars and the closure of external highways.The signs of the second stage are community regulation and family isolation.Wuhan has creatively developed a set of measures which effectively supplements the deficiencies of residents’brick-and-mortar shopping during travel control based on the combined transportation of units’online shopping.The lifting of pedestrian and bus travel restrictions in Wuhan will release the offline shopping demand for fresh vegetables and daily necessities,promote business recovery in community commercial outlets and large-scale retail business centers,and improve the travel quality of low-and middle-income people in Wuhan.In the process of deregulation,we must focus on the elderly male group over 60 years old,primary and secondary school students under 18 years old,and densely populated bus stations.The study suggests that priority be given to the deregulation of electric vehicles and bicycles,and implement demand management of school supplies before primary and secondary schools begin.The conclusions of the study complement the theoretical understanding and interpretation of the"China Plan"and"Wuhan Experience"in the prevention and treatment of global COVID-19.