大城市新冠肺炎疫情风险评估与精准防控对策——以郑州市为例

The Risk Assessment of Covid-2019 Epidemic in Metropolis and Precise Prevention and Control Measures:A Case Study of Zhengzhou City

新型冠状病毒感染的肺炎疫情是当前世界广泛关注的国际突发公共卫生事件。选取本次疫情受影响较为严重的城市--郑州市为例,综合运用GIS空间分析技术、层次分析法与综合加权法等对郑州市疫情的演变趋势、基本特征、空间分布以及风险等级评估进行研究。结果表明:①郑州市疫情防控措施卓有成效,有效遏制了疫情的传播扩散,并且在提高病人治愈率,降低病死率方面效果显著。②从疫情传播的基本特征看,病例中男性占比高于女性,年龄上以青年(18~40岁)和中年(41~65岁)为主。随着时间的推移,输入性感染病例在逐渐减少,家庭聚集性感染和密集接触性感染病例在当前疫情发展过程中占主导地位,且病例来源地主要为郑州市区。③疫情的空间分布差异显著,县域层面上,金水区、管城区、二七区、中原区以及巩义市的确诊病例较多,市区街道尺度上主要分布在中心城区三环以内的人口密集地区。④风险等级较高区域主要分布在金水区、二七区、中原区与管城区等郑州市区,风险等级较低区域主要分布在新密市、新郑市与中牟县等地区。

The novel coronavirus diseases 2019(COVID-2019)is a worldwide public health emergency which is widely concerned in the world.In this study,the Zhengzhou City which was seriously affected by the epidemic,was selected as an case study to research the evolution trend,basic characteristics,spatial distribution and risk level assessment of the epidemic by using GIS spatial analysis technology,AHP and comprehensive weighting method.The results show that:1)The prevention and control measures of the epidemic in Zhengzhou City are effective,which can effectively prevent the spread of the epidemic,and improve the cure rate of patients and reduce the mortality.2)From the basic characteristics of the epidemic transmission,the proportion of male cases is higher than that of female cases,and the main age is young(18-40 years old)and middle-aged(41-65 years old).As time goes on,the number of imported infections is gradually decreasing,and the epidemic cases of family cluster infection and intensive contact infection are dominant in the current epidemic development process,and the source of epidemic cases is mainly the urban area of Zhengzhou city.3)The spatial distribution of the epidemic was significantly different.At the county level,there are more confirmed cases in Jinshui District,Guancheng District,Erqi District,Zhongyuan District and Gongyi City.At the city street scale,they are mainly distributed in densely populated areas within the Third Ring Road of the central city.4)The areas with higher risk level are mainly located in Jinshui District,Erqi District,Zhongyuan District and Guancheng District,and the areas with lower risk level are mainly located in Xinmi City,Xinzheng City and Zhongmou county.The research conclusion can provide reference for Zhengzhou city to formulate precise epidemic prevention and control measures.