基于SSBM-ESDA模型的安徽省县域农业效率时空演变

Temporal and Spatial Analysis of County Agricultural Efficiency in Anhui Province Based on SSBM-ESDA Model

以绿色农业发展为导向,选择农业碳排放作为非期望产出指标,采用超效率的SSBM模型和探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)相结合的方法,以县域单元为尺度对2000-2017年安徽省农业效率水平、空间格局及其演变趋势进行实证分析。研究发现:①传统DEA模型忽视了农业碳排放等非期望产出的负面效应,从而高估农业资源利用的实际状态,基于超效率的SSBM模型更符合实际情况,能较好地识别各评价单元之间的优劣关系。②研究期内,安徽省农业效率值呈波动式上升态势,但总体上处于效率中等水平,农业效率空间分布不均衡,呈现出皖南地区>皖中地区>皖北地区的空间分布格局;空间变化趋势呈现自西向东递增、自北向南U型增长的变化态势,南北差异的增大是安徽省县(市、区)农业效率差异增大的主导因素。③除2010年外,安徽省农业效率呈正相关,空间差异有所缩小,但空间集聚程度相对较弱;安徽农业效率HH集聚县区集中分布于皖南地区,且呈现出向周边县区扩散的态势,LL型县(市、区)则主要分布在皖北地区,且空间分布较为稳定。④研究期内,安徽省农业效率空间正相关的县(区)数量有所增加,表明该时间段内安徽省农业效率空间上进一步集聚,LL型集聚的皖北地区应当是安徽省农业发展关注的重点。

Taking green agriculture development as the guide,chose agricultural low carbon emission as the non-expected output index,and adopted the super-efficiency SBM model(SSBM model)and combined with the Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis method(ESDA).The development level,spatial pattern and evolutional trend of agricultural efficiency in Anhui province from 2000 to 2017 were analyzed by using county unit.It is found that.1)The traditional DEA model ignores the negative effects of unwanted output such as agricultural carbon emissions,thus overestimating the actual state of agricultural resource utilization,and the SSBM model based on super-efficiency can better identify the relationship between the evaluation units.2)During the research period,the agricultural efficiency in Anhui Province was fluctuating,but it was generally at a moderate level,and the spatial distribution of agricultural efficiency in counties was uneven.The trend of spatial change showed a gradual increase from west to East and U-type growth from north to South.The increase of the difference between North and South is the dominant factor in the increase of the difference of agricultural efficiency between counties(cities and districts)in Anhui Province.3)In addition to 2010,the agricultural efficiency of Anhui Province is positively related,and the spatial differences have narrowed,but the degree of spatial concentration is relatively weak.4)During the research period,the number of counties(cities and districts)that are positively related to the agricultural efficiency space in Anhui Province has increased,indicating that the agricultural efficiency space in Anhui Province has further gathered during this period,and the LL-type cluster in northern Anhui Province should be the focus of agricultural development in Anhui Province.