1978-2017年西藏耕地面积变化态势及驱动力分析

Cultivated Land Area Changes and DrivingForces inTibet during 1978 — 2017

为探讨西藏耕地面积动态变化与社会经济发展之间的相关性特点,根据西藏1978-2017年的统计资料,计算耕地面积变动情况;同时,科学选取12项社会经济发展因素作为指标,综合运用主成分分析法与回归分析法,开展耕地面积变化驱动力分析。结果表明:(1)1978-2017年,西藏耕地面积从227 600 hm2增加到242 750 hm2,呈现波动增加的趋势,年增加耕地面积为388.46 hm2;人均耕地面积持续减少,1978年西藏人均耕地面积为0.13 hm2,2017年已减少为0.07 hm2。(2)利用主成分分析法将影响西藏耕地面积变化的驱动因素归纳为经济因子和人口、科技、产业因子,1978-2017年西藏耕地面积变化驱动力从-0.9增加至1.7,整体呈现持续上升的趋势,西藏耕地面积变化的驱动力逐渐加强。(3)利用回归分析法发现全社会固定资产投资、财政收入、农村居民人均纯收入、地区生产总值等是影响耕地面积变化的主要因素,并呈现显著正相关关系,1978-2017年西藏耕地面积波动增加,经济快速发展对耕地面积变化产生明显影响。

This paper explores the correlation between the dynamic change of cultivated land area and social and economic development in Tibet,according to the statistical data of Tibet from 1978 to 2017,to calculate the changing situation of cultivated land area.At the same time,twelve socio-economic development factors are chosen scientifically,and principal component analysis and regression analysis are integratedly used to analyze the quantity changes of cultivated land and driving foreces orderly.The research shows that:(1)The total area of cultivated land showed a trend of dynamical increasing,totally,the cultivated land area had been increasing 388.46 hm2 per year from 227600 hm2 in 1978 to 242750 hm2 in 2017,average cultivated land area reduced from 0.13 hm2 per capita in 1978 to 0.07 hm2 per capita in 2017.(2)The driving factors of cultivated land changing be summarized as the economic,population,agricultural science&technology and industrial factor,the comprehensive score of cultivated land changing increased from−0.9 in 1978 to 1.7 in 2017.(3)The main driver forces of cultivated land changes are total investment in fixed assets,financial revenue,per capita net income of rural residents and gross domestic product, there was a positive correlation betweenthe driver forces and the change of cultivated land area;the total area of cultivated land showed atrend of dynamical increasing in Tibet during 1978 to 2017, the rapid economic development has anobvious influence on the change of cultivated land area.