FLUS模型对佛山城镇建设适宜性评价的验证与修正分析

A Positive Study of Urban Construction Suitability Evaluation Based on FLUS Model,Foshan

自然资源本底摸查、空间承载能力和开发适宜性评价是国土空间规划的基础性工作。随着AI时代的带来,从智能化角度探索一种更为客观、科学的城镇建设适宜性评价方式成为了可能。文章以佛山为例,基于FLUS模型对未来城镇空间进行模拟,比对分析其模拟结果与城镇建设适宜性评价结果的异同。研究表明,两种分析结果总体上基本一致,但由于城镇建设适宜性评价采用的是一种“千层饼”叠加的空间分析方法,无法反映空间要素之间的相互作用,从而导致评价结果与预期值有所偏差。因此,在对空间要素流动密集地区进行城镇建设适宜性评价时,应充分考虑空间要素之间的相互作用,基于FLUS模型的模拟结果对城镇建设适宜性评价结果进行修正,从而得到更切合实际的评价结论。

Natural resource investigation,and evaluations of space carrying capacity and development suitability are the foundation of national land use and space plan.An intelligent way of scientific and objective evaluation becomes possible in the coming AI era.With Foshan as an example,the paper makes a FLUS model based evaluation of future urban space and compares it with urban construction suitability evaluation.The result shows that the two evaluations are same in general.However,urban construction suitability evaluation is an overlapping of multiple elements and it cannot reflect the interaction among the elements,which has resulted in digression from anticipation.Therefore,the FLUS model based simulation shall be used to verify the urban construction suitability result in consideration with the interaction among elements.In this way an objective evaluation result may be achieved.