北京海淀区儿童手足口病的发病与气象因素相关性研究

Relationship Between Children’s Hand-foot-mouth Disease and Meteorological Factors in Haidian District in Beijing

目的对北京海淀区儿童手足口病的发病情况与当地气象因素相关性进行统计分析。方法回顾性分析2014-01/2017-12北京海淀区儿童手足口病的发病情况,利用SPSS13.0统计学软件通过Poisson回归单因素分析和多因素的广义相加模型拟合分析法探究发病情况与气温、气压、降水量、相对湿度等气象因素间的关系。结果日平均气温、日最低气温与手足口病发病呈线性相关,日最高气温、日最低气湿、日照时数与手足口病发病呈曲线相关。Poisson回归分析显示气压和风速与手足口病发病呈负相关。结论北京海淀区儿童手足口病发病与气温等气象因素具有密切相关性,是手足口病预测模型中的重要考虑因素。

Objective To analyze the correlation between the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease and local meteorological factors in Haidian district in Beijing.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on the incidence of hand foot and mouth disease(HFMD)of children in Haidian district and local meteorological factors in Beijing from January 2014 to December 2017,meteorological factors included temperature,air pressure,precipitation,relative humidity,etc.The SPSS13.0 was used to analyze the related meteorological factors and the incidence of HFMD by Poisson regression single factor analysis and multi factor generalized additive model fitting analysis.Results The daily mean temperature and daily minimum temperature correlated linearly with the incidence of HFMD.The daily maximum temperature,daily minimum humidity and sunshine hours were correlated with the incidence of HFMD with a curvilinear correlation.Poisson regression analysis showed that air pressure and wind speed were negatively correlated with HFMD.Conclusion The incidence of HFMD in children in Haidian district was closely related to meteorological factors such as air temperature.It was an important factor in the prediction model of HFMD.