喜凉作物生长期对全球变暖停滞响应的时空差异——以中国绿洲为例

Spatiotemporal responses of the growth period of chimonophilous crop to global warming hiatus--Take the example of Chinese oases

基于中国绿洲喜凉作物(chimonophilous crop)分布区39个站点1960~2016年逐日平均气温资料,运用线性趋势法、反距离加权插值(IDW)、Morlet小波、Mann-Kendall检验等方法,研究中国绿洲喜凉作物气候生长期的时空变化对变暖停滞的响应.结果表明:①变暖停滞期,中国绿洲喜凉作物气候生长期起、止日及生长期日数以-0.2d/10a、0.33d/10a、0.53d/10a的趋势变化,较1960~2016年起始日提前趋势减缓1.01d/10a,终止日推迟减缓1.28d/10a,生长期日数延长减缓2.3d/10a,对变暖停滞有响应.②中国绿洲喜凉作物气候生长期起始日对变暖停滞响应的站点有44%,终止日和生长期日数均为49%,主要分布在南疆、柴达木盆地和河西绿洲,其中河西绿洲对变暖停滞响应最明显,南疆次之,柴达木最小,而北疆绿洲不存在滞缓现象,显然空间差异明显.③M-K检验显示,中国绿洲喜凉作物气候生长期起、止日及生长期日数分别在2001年、1990年和1997年发生突变,起始日晚于变暖停滞起始年份,终止日和生长期日数早于变暖停滞起始年,且分绿洲生长期日数突变年与变暖停滞起始年相接近.④Morlet小波得出变暖停滞期其变化稳定存在2.4~4.3a的震荡周期,表明未来几年中国绿洲喜凉作物气候生长期仍持续延长.

Based on the daily average temperatures of 39 meteorological stations in Chinese oases of the distribution area of chimonophilous crop from 1960 to 2016,we analyzed spatiotemporal response of growth periods of chimonophilous crop to global warming hiatus,with methods including a linear trend,inverse distance weighted interpdation(IDW),Mann-Kendall mutation test,and Morlet wavelet.The results indicated that:(1)During the global warming hiatus,the start date of growth period of the chimonophilous crop of Chinese oases had advanced and the end date had been postponed;the number of days that comprose the growing season had gradually prolonged,with the trend rates being-0.2d/10a,0.33d/10a,0.53d/10a,compared with past 56 years,the start date trend slowed down by 1.01d/10a,the end date was prolonged by 1.28d/10a,and the growth period decelerated by 2.3d/10a,in the simultaneous comresponding to global warming hiatus.(2)The spatial disparity was strikingly significant,44%stations of start day of the chimonophilous crop of Chinese oases in response to the warming hiatus,and 49%of end day and growth period,which were mainly distributed in the southern Xinjiang,Qaidam Basin and Hexi Oasis,whose Hexi Oasis responses to the warming hiatus were the most obvious,followed by southern Xinjiang,the least in Qaidam,and the absence of warming hiatus in the northern Xinjiang oasis.(3)The M-K experiment observed that the mutation points of start and end dates and growth period of chimonophilous crop were in 2001,1990 and 1997,respectively.The start date was preceded by the start year of global warming hiatus,the end date and growth period was on contrary,and the number of days that comprose the growing season of Chinese oases was adjacent to the start year of global warming hiatus.(4)The cycle of the growth period of chimonophilous crop lasted between 2.4 years and 4.3 years during the warming hiatus,with the adds of continuous extension incoming years.