海事应急决策中基于置信规则的失误扩散模型

Error Diffusion Model Based on Confidence Rules in Maritime Emergency Decision-making

人因失误一直是影响应急决策效能的重要因素.现有的应急指挥系统通常包括由多个值守人员组成的工作流体系,在这个决策环境中人因失误的产生和扩散均会对应急决策的质量形成较大的影响.针对此问题,提出了一种基于置信规则(BRB)推理的决策失误模型,描述协同决策中个体之间的决策行为及其关联.将个体决策作为工作流中的一个节点,建立节点之间的交互网络,在更大的范围内考察决策单元之间的网络工作流,在此基础上进一步构建人员决策失误控制模型,包括决策失误的累积、传递和修正.最后,对海事应急决策工作流进行案例分析,研究提出的模型在决策工作流中识别和纠正失误的能力.研究表明,该模型能够较好地描述决策单元的决策偏差程度,体现出决策工作流对决策失误的控制与纠正作用.

Human error has always been an important factor affecting the effectiveness of emergency decision-making.The existing emergency command system usually includes a workflow system composed of several people on duty.In this decision-making environment,the occurrence and spread of human errors will have a greater impact on the quality of emergency decision-making.To solve this problem,a decision-making error model based on confidence rule(BRB)reasoning was proposed to describe the decision-making behaviors and their correlations among individuals in collaborative decision-making.Individual decision was taken as a node in the workflow,an interactive network between nodes was established,and the network workflow between decision units was examined in a larger scope.On this basis,the control model of personnel decision-making errors was further constructed,including accumulation,transmission and correction of decision-making errors.Finally,a case study of maritime emergency decision-making workflow was conducted to study the ability of the proposed model to identify and correct errors in the decision-making workflow.The research shows that the model can better describe the degree of decision deviation of decision-making units and reflect the control and correction effect of decision workflow on decision errors.