财政透明度、逆周期调控与政府债务规模

Fiscal Transparency, Countercyclical Regulation and Public Debt Size

本文从信息披露视角解释政府债务的形成机制。研究显示,以公共信息披露形式呈现的财政透明度对政府债务规模具有抑制效应,并且这种抑制效应主要通过宏观层面的逆周期调控与系统性风险两个渠道实现,前者源于公共信息披露对政府行为的约束作用,并借助投资率和失业率的变化得以体现,后者则归因于公共信息披露对公众预期的引导与塑造作用,并集中展现在系统性风险的形成之中。异质性分析表明,这种抑制效应在财政透明度提高之后先是逐步增强,在第4年达到最大值,而后开始减弱并在第7年之后趋于消失,并且在高债务、高财政透明度、低经济增长率的国家更为明显。据此,政府在经济“去杠杆化”的过程中不仅要加强信息披露,更要将信息披露程度与逆周期调控力度有机结合,以实现宏观经济的平稳运行与系统性风险的有序释放。

This thesis explains the formation mechanism of public debt from the perspective of information disclosure.The results show that fiscal transparency in the form of public information disclosure has a inhibitory effect on the scale of public debt,and this effect is mainly achieved through two channels at macro-level:counter-cyclical macro-adjustment and systemic risks.The former results from the restrictive effect of public information disclosure on government behaviour which is reflected by changes in investment rate and unemployment rate.The latter can be attributed to the guidance and portray effect of public information disclosure on expectations of the public s which is concentrated on the formation of systemic risks.The heterogeneity analysis shows that this inhibitory effect gradually strengthens after an increase in fiscal transparency,reaches the maximum in the fourth year,and then begins to weaken and tends to disappear after the seventh year.It becomes more pronounced in countries with the characteristic of high debt,high fiscal transparency and low economic growth rate.So,the government should not only strengthen the information disclosure in the process of economic deleveraging,but also organically combine the degree of information disclosure with the intensity of counter-cyclical macro-adjustment to achieve a smooth functioning of macro-economy and an orderly release of systemic risks.