“一带一路”与中国OFDI企业TFP:对发达国家投资视角

The Belt and Road Initiative and the TFP of China s OFDI Enterprises:A Perspective on Investing in Developed Countries

本文将“一带一路”倡议及对外直接投资(OFDI)引入全球价值“双环流”框架,利用2011-2016年中国上市公司数据从全要素生产率(TFP)视角探讨“一带一路”倡议是否以及如何影响在非沿线发达国家进行直接投资的中国企业。理论分析表明,在“一带一路”倡议的政策红利下,中国与“下环流”沿线非发达国家在全球价值链中的“位势攀升差”会倒逼中国企业提高技术创新水平,而投资“上环流”非沿线发达国家的企业会优先通过“逆向溢出”机制实现技术创新,从而更快地提升全要素生产率。计量结果显示,“一带一路”倡议显著地提高了投资非沿线发达国家的中国企业全要素生产率,且以提高企业的技术创新为实现路径。本文从中国企业视角为“一带一路”倡议下政府应对贸易摩擦提供了理论启示。

This paper introduces the“Belt and Road”Initiative(BRI)and the outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)within the“double circulation”framework of global value(GV)using data of Chinese listed enterprises from between 2011 and 2016 to explore whether and how the BRI will affect Chinese enterprises making OFDI in developed countries not along the Belt and Road from a total factor productivity(TFP)perspective.Theoretical analysis shows that under BRI policy dividends,the“position rising gap”between China and“lower circulation”non-developed countries along the Belt and Road in the global value chain(GVC)will force Chinese enterprises to improve their technological innovation levels,while enterprises that have made OFDI in“upper circulation”developed countries not along the Belt and Road will prioritise technological innovation through the“reverse spill over”mechanism,thereby improving TFP faster.Econometric results show that the BRI has significantly improved the TFP of enterprises whose investment destinations target developed countries not along the Belt and Road,which is materialised through improvement in their technological innovation.This paper provides theoretical revelations for the government on how to deal with trade frictions from the perspective of Chinese enterprises.