流动人口消费的就业效应——基于多区域投入产出视角

Employment Effect of Floating Population’s Consumption:From a Multi-regional Input-output Perspective

文章基于有效需求理论,运用京津冀14个城市和全国省级区域嵌套而成的宏观多区域投入产出表,并将微观调查数据“中国流动人口动态监测调查”、“中国家庭金融调查”与投入产出表进行匹配,构造出就业扩展的多区域投入产出模型,以流入地北京市为例,分别对2015年流动人口在当地及流出地消费引致的就业效应进行系统测算和分析。研究发现,2015年流动人口在流入地消费创造了210.0万人/年的就业,重点拉动当地就业150.5万人/年,对京津冀其他城市的影响有限,对其他省份主要是拉动东南沿海地区的就业,而各流出地共损失73.0万人/年的就业,其中与流入地地理位置邻近的省份和劳动力输出大省的就业损失较大;在行业层面,流入地、流出地消费对除房地产外的其他行业就业的影响存在相似性,均极大地拉动了劳动密集型制造业和服务业行业的就业,对技术密集型和资金密集型行业的就业影响较小;以收入水平、消费结构为切入点,从流入地流动人口的就业效应看,流动人口的生存型消费对就业贡献较大,约占总就业量的54.7%,享受型消费的就业拉动作用有限,但随着流动人口收入水平的上升,拉动能力明显增强。

This paper measures employment effect of the consumption of floating population in the origin and destination,using the floating population in Beijing as the case.We construct an innovative employment-extended multi-regional input-output model by matching Chinese multi-regional input-output table for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area with its 14 cities and the rest of each province in China's Mainland.The data used include micro surveys such as China Migrants Dynamic Survey and China Household Finance Survey.Our results reveal that floating population’s consumption in 2015 drives 2.1 million full-time equivalent(FTE)employment in inflow regions,of which 1.5 million is to Beijing local employment and a comparatively smaller effect to the rest of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area.The consumption also generates employment in other provinces,mainly in southeastern coastal areas.In contrast,a total of 730 thousand FTE employment loss took place in outflow regions,mainly in the areas close to Beijing and those origin provinces.Floating population’s consumption in both inflow and outflow regions has similar employment effects for various industries except the real estate.It mainly increases the employment in labor-intensive manufacturing industries and services,while has lower effects on tech-and capital-intensive industries.From the perspective of income and consumption structure,the subsistence consumption of floating population in inflow regions contributes 54.7%of the total employment.The enjoying consumption has little effect on employment,yet is expected to increase along with the increase of income among the floating population.