新冠肺炎爆发前期武汉外流人口的地理去向分布及影响

The Geographical Destination Distribution and Effect of Outflow Population of Wuhan When the Outbreak of COVID-19

该文基于腾讯和百度等地理位置服务所收集到的大规模人口流动数据,对春节前从武汉离开人口的地理分布进行了统计分析。研究发现,首先,虽然武汉市关闭出城通道前的500万流出人口和往年春运期间的正常人口流动无较大差别,但确实有少量人口在“封城”前的最后一段时间内涌出武汉。其次,统计了2020年开始从武汉流出人口的目的地城市信息,发现和往年的目的地分布基本上是一致的。最后,分析了离汉人口对于疾病传播的影响,在衡量影响时必须要考虑潜伏期的作用。该文研究有助于相关人员掌握疫情扩散速度、评估疫情风险,对预测以及阻止新冠肺炎传播提供参考。

In this paper,we provide a statistical analysis of population movements leaving Wuhan based on mass population movement information which is collected by geographic services of Tencent and Baidu.Firstly,we find that the five million people leaving Wuhan before the official announcement that they will close the exits are not much different from the normal population movement during the previous Spring Festival travel rush.However,small portion of the population poured out of Wuhan in the last period before the exits closed.Secondly,according to statistics of the destination cities of the outflow population from Wuhan starting from 2020,we find that the destination distribution of folks in 2020 was basically same as that in previous years.Finally,the influence of the population leaving Wuhan on epidemic spread is analyzed.We find that the role of incubation period must be considered when measuring this influence.This study is helpful for relevant personnel to grasp the speed of epidemic spread,assess the risk of epidemic,and provides reference to predict and stop disease spreading.