摘要
考虑复杂人流网络的统计特征和SI传播模型,该文基于实证数据构建了新型冠状病毒肺炎在湖北省和4个省传播和扩散的P-SI模型。基于实证数据的研究分析表明,P-SI模型能够根据各省感染COVID-19情况拟合每天新增感染人数的变化趋势。此外,P-SI模型能够根据4省2020年1月23日前的感染情况预测2020年1月24日后的每天新增感染人数。该模型有助于理解COVID-19的传播特性,为阻断传播源,遏制疫情扩散,制定有效的防控措施提供决策依据。
The statistical characteristics of the human mobility among different cities in the spreading of COVID-19 can be described by SI spreading model.P-SI models are presented to investigate how COVID-19 spreads or diffuses in Hubei and the other 4 provinces.Based on empirical data,some experiments are then conducted under the framework of the P-SI models.The experimental results demonstrate that the P-SI models can describe the number of daily new infected people caused by COVID-19 in Hubei and the other 4 provinces according to the empirical data.In addition,the P-SI models can also predict the number of daily new infected people in the other 4 provinces after 1/24 according to the empirical data before 1/23.The P-SI models are steps toward the understanding of COVID-19’s spreading characteristics,which provides supports to isolate the source of COVID-19,to prevent and slow down the spreading of COVID-19,and to roll out effective measures for COVID-19’s prevention and control.
作者
傅家旗
刘敏
邓春燕
黄娟
江明珠
郭强
刘建国
FU Jia-qi;LIU Min;DENG Chun-yan;HUANG Juan;JIANG Ming-zhu;GUO Qiang;LIU Jian-guo(Complex Systems Science Research Center,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology Yangpu Shanghai 200093;School of Computer and Information Engineering,Beijing Technology and Business University Haidian Beijing 100048;Institute of Financial Technology Laboratory,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics Yangpu Shanghai 200433)
出处
《电子科技大学学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第3期383-391,共9页
Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China
基金
国家自然科学基金(71771152,617773248)
国家社科重大项目(18ZDA088)。
