中国数字金融发展与经济增长的理论与实证

Theoretical and Empirical Analysis on the Development of Digital Finance and Economic Growth in China

研究目标:在数字经济背景下,基于中国数字金融发展的特征事实,分析数字金融发展对经济增长的影响。研究方法:基于2011~2018年31个省份的面板数据,运用面板数据计量模型、中介效应模型、工具变量法、双重差分法进行实证检验。研究发现:中国数字金融发展促进了经济增长,为了控制内生性,以1984年各省份固定电话数与人均邮电业务量作为工具变量,结论一致;将央行推出的《G20数字普惠金融高级原则》作为准自然实验,采用双重差分法发现数字金融发展显著促进了经济增长;在城镇化率低和物质资本高的省份中,数字金融发展对经济增长的积极作用进一步增强;进一步分析发现数字金融发展促进了技术创新与地区创业,并进而推动了经济增长,即存在数字金融发展促进经济增长的创新和创业渠道。研究创新:使用工具变量、准自然实验的方法,缓解了内生性问题;使用中介效应模型,揭开了数字金融发展影响实体经济的可能机制。研究价值:对制定“数字中国”战略、理解金融供给侧结构性改革和出台创新创业政策促进实体经济发展提供了有益思考。

Research Objectives:Under the background of digital economy,based on the characteristics and facts of digital financial development,the paper analyzes the effect of digital financial development on economic growth.Research Methods:Based on panel data of 31 provinces from 2011 to 2018,this paper employs panel data measurement model,mediation effect model,instrumental variable method and double difference method to evaluate.Research Findings:The development of digital finance promotes economic growth.In order to control endogenous,the number of fixed telephones and per capita postal and telecommunications business in each province in 1984 were taken as instrumental variables and the conclusion was consistent.Taking the G20 advanced principles of digital inclusive finance launched by the central bank as a quasi-natural experiment,the multiple difference method is adopted to find that the development of digital finance indeed significantly promotes economic growth.In the provinces with low urbanization rate and high material capital,the positive effect of digital financial development on economic growth will be further enhanced.Further analysis shows that digital financial development promotes technological innovation(especially innovation quality)and regional entrepreneurship,which may be an important channel for digital financial development to promote economic growth.Research Innovations:In this paper,the number of fixed telephones and per capita postal and telecommunications business in each province in 1984 were selected as the instrumental variables for the development of digital finance for the first time,which alleviated the endogenous problem in the model.It has revealed the internal mechanism of the development of digital finance affecting the real economy.Research Value:It provides useful thinking for the formulation of“digital China”strategy,the understanding of financial supply-side structural reform and the introduction of innovation and entrepreneurship policies to serve the real economy.