“一带一路”沿线四大区域入境旅游全要素生产率的空间差异及溢出效应研究

Study on Spatial Differences and Spillover Effects of Total Factor Productivity of Inbound Tourism in Four Regions along the“One Belt And One Road”

研究目标:“一带一路”沿线四大区域18省市入境旅游全要素生产率的演变趋势、差异根源和空间效应。研究方法:运用Malmquist指数、Dagum基尼系数、空间杜宾模型等进行实证研究。研究发现:2007~2017年,四大区域18省市入境旅游全要素生产率在均值为1.161上下波动,技术效率是入境旅游全要素生产率提升的主要源泉;2014年为入境旅游全要素生产率时间序列的突变点;超变密度贡献一直是四大区域间入境旅游全要素生产率差异的主要根源;技术进步、区位优势、开放程度、经济集聚等影响因素的总体空间溢出效应均显著为正;人力资本和市场化程度两个因素对入境旅游全要素生产率的直接溢出效应、间接溢出效应和总体溢出效应均未通过显著性检验。研究创新:基于全要素生产率的视角,证实了“一带一路”倡议对沿线四大区域入境旅游的提升作用,揭示出沿线四大区域入境旅游差异根源,纳入“空间效应”探究了四大区域入境旅游全要素生产率的空间溢出效应及作用机理。研究价值:为提升沿线重点省市入境旅游全要素生产率、缩小各省市入境旅游全要素生产率的差异及助推入境旅游经济高质量发展提供量化依据和理论支持。

Research Objectives:The evolution trend,root causes and spatial effects of total factor productivity of inbound tourism in 18 key provinces and four regions along the“One belt and one road”.Research Methods:Using Malmquist index,Dagum Gini Coefficient and spatial Doberman model to carry out empirical research.Research Findings:The total factor productivity of inbound tourism in 18 key provinces fluctuates at an average of 1.161;2014 is the mutation point of time evolution of total factor productivity of inbound tourism;The contribution rate of hypervariable function has always been the main source of TFP difference in inbound tourism;The overall spatial spillover effects of technological progress,location advantage,openness and economic agglomeration are all significantly positive;The direct spatial spillover effect,indirect spillover effect and overall spatial spillover effect of human capital and marketization degree on total factor productivity of inbound tourism have not passed the significance test.Research Innovation:Based on the perspective of total factor productivity,the role of the“Belt and Road”initiative in enhancing the inbound tourism in the four major regions along the route was confirmed,the roots of the differences in inbound tourism in the four major regions along the route were revealed,and the“spatial effect”was used to explore the inbound tourism spatial spillover effect and mechanism of tourism total factor productivity.Research Value:Provide quantitative basis and theoretical support for improving the total factor productivity of inbound tourism in key provinces and cities along the route,narrowing the difference in total factor productivity of inbound tourism among provinces and cities,and promoting the high-quality development of inbound tourism economy.