“非常态危机”识别与防控——基于非传统安全的视角

Identifying,Preventing and Controlling“Abnormal Crisis”——With the perspective of Non-traditional Security

在全球风险社会与中国社会加速转型的双重语境下,我国面临的非传统安全威胁逐步加剧。非传统安全威胁应对过程中按"安全化"程度可以分为"常态危机"与"非常态危机"两种。"非常态"均与超常、偶发、例外相关。常态危机是可防可控的"普通紧急状态",非常态危机是难防难控的"例外紧急状态"。由于"安全化不当"所引发的非常态危机在源起点、演变路径、演变结果、应对目标等方面均与常态危机不同,非常态危机与常态危机又是一个相互关联与转化的缠绕过程。从危机的成因识别角度看,非常态危机可分为"理念错位型""信息错乱型""时机错失型""资源错配型"四类。防控关键在于强化非传统安全危机意识,提高国家非传统安全治理能力,即做到理念适合、条件融合、体制耦合、信息整合。

With the accelerating transformations of the global risk society and Chinese society,the nontraditional security threats China faces are aggravating gradually.Crisis can be classified into"normal crises"and"abnormal crises"according to the level of"securitization"."abnormal crises",all related to supernormal,accidental or exceptional cases,are"exceptional emergencies"that are hard to be prevented and controlled,while"normal crises"are ordinary emergencies that can be prevented and controlled.In addition,"abnormal crises"are different from"normal crisis"in their origin,evolutionary process and result,and responding targets.Nevertheless,they are interconnected and interchangeable.From the perspective of causes identification,"abnormal crisis"can be categorized into"theoretical mismatched","information disordered","opportunity missed",and"resource misplaced".The key of preventing and controlling"abnormal crisis"lies in strengthening crisis consciousness and building national capacity of non-traditional security governance.In a word,efforts are needed to finding appropriate concepts,integrating conditions,coupling institutions,and consolidating information.