双边贸易成本影响中国农产品出口边际了吗

Can Bilateral Trade Cost Influence China’s Agricultural Export Margins?

本文利用UN Comtrade数据库1992-2017年HS-6位农产品贸易数据,测度中国与农产品主要贸易伙伴国双边贸易成本及中国农产品出口边际,并运用企业异质性理论模型检验双边贸易成本对中国农产品出口边际的影响。研究结果表明:(1)中国与主要贸易伙伴国双边贸易成本不断下降。(2)中国农产品出口增长主要依赖于集约边际。(3)双边贸易成本对中国农产品出口边际具有显著的负影响,表现为双边可变贸易成本对中国农产品出口扩展边际、集约边际均有抑制作用;双边固定贸易成本仅对中国农产品出口扩展边际具有负向影响;双边可变贸易成本对中国农产品出口扩展边际的阻碍作用大于其对中国农产品出口集约边际的阻碍作用。为此,本文就如何降低双边贸易成本、提高农产品扩展边际在农产品出口中的贡献提出了一些针对性的建议。

Using the HS-6 6-digit agricultural trade data from 1992 to 2017 in the UN Comtrade database, this paper calculates bilateral trade cost and China’s agricultural export margins and tests the effect of bilateral trade cost on China’s agricultural export margins based on heterogeneous enterprise theory. The results show that: Firstly, the bilateral trade cost between China and its main trade partners is decreasing. Secondly, the intensive margin has a bigger contribution to China’s agricultural trade than extensive margin. Thirdly, the bilateral trade cost has a significant and negative effect on China’s agricultural export margins. In detail, the bilateral variable trade cost has a significant and negative effect on China’s agricultural extensive margin and intensive margin. While bilateral fixed trade cost has a significant and negative effect on China’s agricultural extensive margin, and the effect of bilateral variable trade cost on an extensive margin is bigger than its effect on the intensive margin. Therefore, this paper comes up with some specific suggestions on how to reduce bilateral trade cost, and increase the contribution of the extensive margin to agricultural growth.