基于概率树分析方法的经济项目风险分析

Risk Analysis of Economic Project Based on Probability Tree Analysis

概率树分析法是一种基于概率统计描述事件发生可能性的不确定性分析方法,通过分析各种不确定因素的变化范围的概率分布,研究其对项目经济效果评价指标的影响,对项目经济可行性和风险性以及方案优劣做出判断的一种不确定性分析法。概率树分析常用于对一些大型项目的评估和决策,本文将其应用到经济项目风险分析中,对现实中的工程项目风险分析有一定的指导意义。

Probability tree analysis is a kind of uncertainty analysis method based on probability statistics to describe the possibility of events. It is a kind of uncertainty analysis method to judge the economic feasibility and risk of the project as well as the merits and demerits of the scheme by studying the probability distribution of various uncertainty factors with different ranges and their influence on the evaluation indexes of the economic effect of the project. Probability tree analysis is often used in the evaluation and decision-making of some large-scale projects. This paper applies it to the risk analysis of economic projects, which has a certain guiding significance for the risk analysis of engineering projects in practice.