2019年经济景气与物价形势监测、分析和预测

Analysis and Forecasting of Economic Situations and Inflation in 2019

本轮经济景气收缩有望在2019年4季度结束,2019年第4季度至2020年经济景气在“偏冷”区间大体平稳、稳中略升的可能性较大。预测2019年GDP增长6.15%左右,CPI上涨率在2.8%左右。经济周期波动将继续呈现新常态下的“微波化”特征。建议适度加强逆周期调控以稳定内需,将“稳消费”提到更重要的位置,深化供给侧改革,积极扩大开放,长短期措施结合以稳定增长和物价。

The current economic contraction may end in the fourth quarter of 2019.From the 2019Q4 to 2020,the economic climate is more likely to be generally stable and increase at a fairly steady pace in the"partially cold"interval.It is predicted that the GDP growth rate in 2019 will be about 6.15%,and meanwhile the annual inflation rate will be about 2.7%.Business cycle will continue to show the“narrowing fluctuations”characteristics of the new normal.We suggest that the government should moderately strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments to stabilize domestic demand,give higher priority to“stabilizing consumption”,stick to supply-side structural reform and opening up,and combine short and longterm measures to stabilize economic growth and prices.