摘要
本轮经济景气收缩有望在2019年4季度结束,2019年第4季度至2020年经济景气在“偏冷”区间大体平稳、稳中略升的可能性较大。预测2019年GDP增长6.15%左右,CPI上涨率在2.8%左右。经济周期波动将继续呈现新常态下的“微波化”特征。建议适度加强逆周期调控以稳定内需,将“稳消费”提到更重要的位置,深化供给侧改革,积极扩大开放,长短期措施结合以稳定增长和物价。
The current economic contraction may end in the fourth quarter of 2019.From the 2019Q4 to 2020,the economic climate is more likely to be generally stable and increase at a fairly steady pace in the"partially cold"interval.It is predicted that the GDP growth rate in 2019 will be about 6.15%,and meanwhile the annual inflation rate will be about 2.7%.Business cycle will continue to show the“narrowing fluctuations”characteristics of the new normal.We suggest that the government should moderately strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments to stabilize domestic demand,give higher priority to“stabilizing consumption”,stick to supply-side structural reform and opening up,and combine short and longterm measures to stabilize economic growth and prices.
作者
陈磊
孙晨童
李俊杰
CHEN Lei;SUN Chentong;LI Junjie(1.Center for Econometric Analysis and Forecasting,DUFE,Dalian 116025;School of Economics,DUFE,Dalian 116025)
出处
《科技促进发展》
CSCD
2019年第11期1184-1193,共10页
Science & Technology for Development
基金
国家社科基金重大项目(15ZDA011):新常态下我国宏观经济监测和预测研究,负责人:陈磊。
关键词
经济周期
景气分析
物价
监测预警
经济预测
business cycle
economic situations
inflation
monitoring and early warning
forecasting