中国工业经济波动特征及2019年运行态势分析

Analysis on Cycle Feature of Chinese Industry and OperationSituation in 2019

我国工业先行合成指数从2019年1月开始呈现出的最新一轮快速回落态势已于2019年6月表现出缓中趋稳迹象,根据先行合成指数的平均超前期计算,预计明年2月左右我国工业经济景气或将结束快速回落局面呈现缓中趋稳态势。进一步观察我国工业及相关领域主要经济指标可以发现我国工业经济本轮的景气波动具有如下特点:(1)工业增速缓中趋稳,转型升级继续推进,但新旧动能转换速度有所减缓;(2)工业品出口增速低位运行,工业企业效益持续下滑;(3)采矿业投资高速增长,高端制造投资增速相对较高,工业投资结构逐步优化。

The rapid decline trend of China's industrial leading composite index since January 2019 has shown signs of slowing down and stabilizing in June 2019.According to the average early stages of leading composite index,the rapid decline of China's industrial economy will come to an end around February 2020 and China's industrial economy will shows a trend of slow,moderate and stable.After further observation of the main economic indicators of China's industrial and related fields,we could find that this round of our industrial economy cycle has the following features:(1)The industrial growth rate was slow and stable,and the industrial transformation and upgrading continued to advance,but the speed of transformation between new and old kinetic energy slowed down.(2)The growth rate of industrial exports was running at a low level,and the profit of industrial enterprises continued to decline.(3)The investment in mining industry was growing at a high speed,the investment in high-end manufacturing was growing at a relatively high speed,and the industrial investment structure was gradually optimized.