2019年国际收支形势分析及2020年展望

Balance of Payments Situation in 2019 and Prospects for 2020

2019年国际收支保持基本平衡,经常账户保持顺差,非储备性质金融账户延续流入格局,储备资产增加,外汇市场供求平衡。2019年,中美贸易摩擦的负面影响更多.地反映在资本金融账户,而非经常账户;跨境资金流动对人民币汇率双向波动反映平稳;以美元为主要定价货币的国际货币金融体系受到挑战,黄金储备受到央行青睐。预计2020年全球经济增长低迷,全球利率保持低位,人民币资产吸引力较大,我国对外投资效益下降;中美贸易摩擦上升至全面金融对抗可能性不大,但需警惕金融市场风险传染;全面对外开放持续推进,促进更高水平金融发展。

In 2019,the Balance of Payments maintained stable.A current account surplus plus a non-reserve financial account surplus lead to an increase in reserve assets.Foreign exchange market reaches supply and demand balance.In 2019,the negative impact of Sino-US trade friction was more reflected in capital and financial accounts than on current accounts.Cross-border capital flows remain stable despite the fluctuation in the RMB exchange rate.The international monetary and financial system with the US dollar as the main denominated currency faces challenges.Gold reserves are favored by the central bank.It is expected that global economic growth will be low in 2020,global interest rates will remain low.As a result,RMB assets will be attractive whereas China's foreign investment will inefficient.China-US trade friction probably won't rise to a full-scale financial confrontation,but it is necessary to be alert to financial market risks.Openness continues to be promoted and higher levels of financial development will be achieved.